Goldman Sachs starts MediaAlpha with a buy, sets $20 target

Published 19/08/2024, 22:24
Goldman Sachs starts MediaAlpha with a buy, sets $20 target

On Monday, MediaAlpha, a programmatic advertising marketplace and technology platform, received a Buy rating from Goldman Sachs, with a set price target of $20.00. The company, which trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker NYSE:MAX, specializes in digital advertising and customer acquisition, primarily serving U.S. insurance carriers and brokers.

Goldman Sachs provided an analysis framing MediaAlpha's business model around three central discussions. The first is the size of the addressable market for the company. The second point of debate is whether MediaAlpha can sustain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% from 2023 to 2029. The third consideration is the company's potential to continue achieving cost leverage in the upcoming years.

The $20.00 price target set by Goldman Sachs is derived from an equal combination of two valuation methods. The first method is the enterprise value to gross profit (EV/Gross Profit) applied to the next twelve months (NTM) plus one year forecasts. The second method is a modified discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, using an enterprise value to GAAP EBITDA multiple applied to forecasts for the NTM plus four years, discounted back three years.

Goldman Sachs' initiation of coverage on MediaAlpha highlights the firm's positive outlook on the company's ability to navigate the digital advertising space and grow its revenue significantly in the mid-term. The analysis by Goldman Sachs suggests confidence in MediaAlpha's market potential and operational efficiency moving forward.

In other recent news, MediaAlpha, Inc. reported record transaction values and adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024, attributing this success to increased marketing investments from property and casualty carriers.

The company has seen a 300% year-over-year increase in transaction value and anticipates this growth trend to continue into the third quarter. MediaAlpha's health insurance vertical is also showing promise, with projections indicating a significant contribution to the year's transaction value.

Despite an ongoing FTC civil inquiry, MediaAlpha maintains its confidence in its compliance with legal requirements. The company has also addressed a short seller report, affirming the co-founders continued shareholding and optimism about future opportunities.

As part of its forward-looking strategy, MediaAlpha intends to invest in its business, reduce net debt, and explore further capital deployment possibilities.

MediaAlpha projects a 40-45% sequential growth in P&C transaction value for Q3, with an expected revenue increase of over 20% and adjusted EBITDA growth of over 540% year-over-year.

However, the company acknowledges potential impacts from recent consent requirement changes in the health insurance market and expects a more muted pickup in gross profit margin in Q4 due to a higher mix of P&C in the private platform.

InvestingPro Insights

As MediaAlpha garners attention with its Buy rating from Goldman Sachs and a favorable price target, insights from InvestingPro provide additional context for potential investors. According to real-time data, MediaAlpha has demonstrated a significant return over the last year with a 98.6% price total return, reflecting robust investor confidence. This aligns with the optimism from analysts who anticipate sales growth in the current year, an InvestingPro Tip that supports Goldman Sachs' growth projections for the company.

The company's market capitalization stands at $1.12 billion, and while it operates with a negative P/E ratio, indicative of its current lack of profitability, analysts predict that the company will become profitable this year, another InvestingPro Tip that could reassure investors about MediaAlpha's future prospects. Additionally, the firm's liquid assets exceed its short-term obligations, suggesting a strong liquidity position that is essential for sustaining operations and growth.

For those considering a deeper analysis, InvestingPro offers further insights, including additional tips that can be found on the platform. The current price is hovering at $16.98, with an InvestingPro fair value estimate of $16.23, which may suggest that the stock is trading close to its fair value. However, analysts' fair value target is higher at $25.50, indicating potential upside. Interested investors can explore these metrics and more on the InvestingPro platform, which lists numerous additional tips for a comprehensive investment strategy.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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