Lumen Q1 2025 slides: Fiber growth and AI focus amid revenue decline

Published 01/05/2025, 21:14
Lumen Q1 2025 slides: Fiber growth and AI focus amid revenue decline

Introduction & Market Context

Lumen Technologies (NYSE:LUMN) presented its first quarter 2025 results on May 1, revealing continued revenue challenges alongside strategic progress in its transformation toward becoming a digital network services provider. The company reported a 3.3% year-over-year decline in total revenue, reaching $3.18 billion, as it continues to navigate the shift from legacy telecom services to next-generation connectivity solutions focused on AI infrastructure and cloud-based services.

The stock, which has shown significant volatility over the past year with a 52-week range of $0.97 to $10.33, rose 3.13% in after-hours trading following the earnings presentation, suggesting cautious investor optimism about the company’s strategic direction despite ongoing revenue headwinds.

Quarterly Performance Highlights

Lumen reported total revenue of $3,182 million for Q1 2025, representing a 3.3% decline year-over-year and a 4.4% sequential drop from the previous quarter. North American Enterprise revenue, which comprises the largest segment at $1,733 million, fell 1.7% compared to the same period last year.

The company’s Mass Markets segment showed contrasting performance trends, with overall revenue declining 5.9% year-over-year to $658 million, while Fiber Broadband revenue grew an impressive 22.9% to $209 million. This fiber growth continues to be a bright spot for Lumen, now representing 45% of total broadband revenue, up from 35% in Q1 2024.

As shown in the following chart of Mass Markets Revenue, the fiber contribution to total broadband has steadily increased over five consecutive quarters:

The company’s subscriber metrics further underscore the strength of its fiber business, with 39,000 net fiber additions in the quarter, bringing total fiber subscribers to 1.12 million (up 164,000 year-over-year). Lumen added 101,000 fiber-enabled locations in the quarter, expanding its footprint to 4.3 million locations.

The following slide details these broadband metrics:

Strategic Initiatives

CEO Kate Johnson emphasized Lumen’s strategic focus on building infrastructure for the AI economy while transforming its traditional telecom business model. The company is significantly expanding its network capacity to meet growing demand from hyperscalers and enterprise customers, with plans to increase total intercity fiber miles from 17 million in 2025 to 47 million by 2028.

The following slide illustrates Lumen’s strategy for building the backbone for AI:

A key component of Lumen’s transformation is what the company calls "cloudifying telecom" - moving from a traditional capital and labor-intensive model with static connections to a cloud-based model with dynamic connections and digital customer experience. This approach aims to enable frictionless growth by allowing thousands of services per port rather than the traditional one service per port.

The following slide contrasts traditional telecom with Lumen’s cloudified approach:

Central to this strategy is the Lumen Connectivity Fabric (LCF), which showed strong adoption growth in Q1 2025. The company reported a 23% quarter-over-quarter increase in LCF customers, 26% growth in Fabric Port sales, and 29% growth in services sold.

Detailed Financial Analysis

Lumen reported adjusted EBITDA of $929 million for Q1 2025, excluding special items totaling $99 million. This represents a 4.9% decline year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA margin contracting by 50 basis points to 29.2%. Special items included $50 million for modernization and simplification efforts, $16 million for transaction and separation costs, and $30 million in other expenses.

The following slide details the adjusted EBITDA calculation:

Free Cash Flow for the quarter was $354 million, with Cash Flow from Operations of $1,095 million offset by Capital Expenditures of $791 million. Net Cash Interest stood at $259 million.

Forward-Looking Statements

Lumen reiterated its full-year 2025 financial outlook, projecting adjusted EBITDA between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion, and Free Cash Flow between $700 million and $900 million. Capital Expenditures are expected to range from $4.1 billion to $4.3 billion, with Net Cash Interest projected at $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion.

The company’s 2025 strategic goals focus on three main areas: driving operational excellence, building the backbone for the AI economy, and cloudifying telecom. Specific objectives include modernizing key systems, simplifying operations, meeting hyperscaler and AI commitments, and driving platform adoption across industries.

CFO Chris Stansbury emphasized the company’s commitment to these strategic initiatives while managing the ongoing revenue transition. The continued investment in fiber broadband and AI infrastructure underscores Lumen’s belief that these growth areas will eventually offset legacy revenue declines, though the timeline for complete revenue stabilization remains uncertain.

As Lumen continues its transformation journey, investors will be watching closely for signs that its strategic bets on fiber, AI infrastructure, and cloud-based telecom services are translating into sustainable revenue growth that can overcome the persistent headwinds from legacy business declines.

Full presentation:

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