Cardiff Oncology shares plunge after Q2 earnings miss
Introduction & Market Context
Moderna Inc (BMV:MRNA). (NASDAQ:MRNA) presented its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 1, showing continued revenue decline as the company transitions from its COVID-19 vaccine-dominated business to a diversified multi-product company. The biotech firm’s stock has struggled in recent months, trading near its 52-week low of $23.15, with premarket trading showing a 0.91% decline to $28.28 following the earnings release.
The company is navigating a challenging period as COVID-19 vaccine demand has shifted to a seasonal model, while simultaneously investing in its pipeline across respiratory vaccines, oncology, and rare diseases. This transition period has been marked by significant financial losses and aggressive cost-cutting measures as Moderna works toward its goal of cash breakeven by 2028.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
Moderna reported total revenue of $108 million for Q1 2025, representing a 35% decrease compared to the same period last year. Net product sales fell 49% to $86 million from $167 million in Q1 2024. The company posted a net loss of $971 million, 17% higher than the previous year, with a loss per share of $2.52.
As shown in the following detailed financial results comparison:
Despite the revenue decline, Moderna highlighted its execution with financial discipline, noting a 19% reduction in operating expenses ($275 million) from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025. The company’s cash position stood at $8.4 billion, down 12% from December 31, 2024.
Detailed Financial Analysis
Moderna’s financial framework for 2025 projects total revenue between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, with approximately $0.2 billion expected in the first half of the year. The company anticipates cost of sales of approximately $1.2 billion, R&D expenses of around $4.1 billion, and SG&A expenses of approximately $1.1 billion.
The financial outlook for 2025 is presented in the following chart:
In a significant development, Moderna announced an aggressive cost reduction plan targeting $1.4-$1.7 billion in cuts by 2027. This plan aims to bring GAAP costs down from $11.1 billion in 2023 to between $4.7-$5.0 billion by 2027, with cash costs projected to decrease from $8.9 billion to approximately $4.2 billion in the same period.
The company’s cost reduction strategy is illustrated in this comprehensive breakdown:
This cost-cutting initiative aligns with Moderna’s stated goal of reaching cash breakeven by 2028, as the company navigates the transition from its COVID-19 vaccine-dominated business to a more diversified portfolio.
Strategic Initiatives & Pipeline Progress
Moderna’s strategic focus centers on three key execution priorities: driving use of existing Spikevax and mRESVIA vaccines, focusing on 10 product approvals to drive sales growth, and delivering cost efficiency across the business.
The company’s prioritized pipeline shows several products filed for approval in 2024, including next-generation COVID vaccine (mRNA-1283), RSV vaccine for high-risk 18-59 year-olds (mRNA-1345), and a Flu+COVID combination vaccine for those 50 and older (mRNA-1083).
The comprehensive pipeline is visualized in the following chart:
Moderna’s respiratory vaccines portfolio shows significant near-term potential, with FDA decision dates (PDUFA) of May 31, 2025 for its next-gen COVID vaccine and June 12, 2025 for its RSV vaccine. The company also noted that its seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) has exceeded its case accrual target, with interim data expected in summer 2025.
The respiratory vaccines portfolio timeline is detailed here:
In oncology, Moderna is advancing several promising candidates, including Intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157) for adjuvant melanoma, NSCLC, and other cancer indications, as well as Checkpoint AIM-T (mRNA-4359) for first-line melanoma and metastatic NSCLC.
Forward-Looking Statements
Moderna outlined its plan to focus on 10 product approvals targeting more than $30 billion in total addressable market to drive sales growth through 2028. The company provided a timeline for these targeted approvals:
Key upcoming catalysts include potential approvals for next-gen COVID (PDUFA date May 31, 2025) and RSV 18-59 HR (PDUFA date June 12, 2025), as well as multiple data readouts across its pipeline, including CMV Phase 3 efficacy, seasonal flu Phase 3 efficacy, and Intismeran adjuvant melanoma Phase 3 efficacy data.
CEO Stéphane Bancel emphasized the company’s three execution priorities: driving use of Spikevax and mRESVIA vaccines, focusing on 10 product approvals to drive sales growth, and delivering cost efficiency across the business. The company maintains its target of achieving cash breakeven by 2028, highlighting the importance of its cost reduction initiatives while continuing to invest in its pipeline.
While Moderna faces significant challenges in the near term with declining revenue and continued losses, its substantial cash position of $8.4 billion provides runway to execute its strategy of transitioning from a COVID-19-focused business to a diversified multi-product company with potential growth drivers across respiratory vaccines, oncology, and rare diseases.
Full presentation:
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