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On Friday, Guggenheim maintained its Buy rating on Nexstar Broadcasting Group (NASDAQ:NXST) but reduced the price target from $200.00 to $198.00. The firm adjusted its model for Nexstar ahead of the company's third-quarter earnings report scheduled for November 7th. The revision reflects a decrease in the third and fourth-quarter financial outlook due to a softer advertising market and anticipated political advertising displacement.
The revised forecast by Guggenheim projects third-quarter revenue and EBITDA at $1.373 billion and $473 million, respectively, down from the previous estimates of $1.390 billion and $490 million. For the fourth quarter, the revenue is anticipated to be $1.603 billion with EBITDA at $684 million, a decrease from the initially expected $1.626 billion in revenue and $708 million in EBITDA.
The downgrade in the target price is also influenced by additional fourth-quarter costs attributed to the early execution of The CW's NASCAR contract. Despite the lowered expectations for core advertising revenue, political advertising is predicted to remain strong. Guggenheim forecasts a record $604 million in political ad revenue, noting the potential for an upward surprise.
The full-year EBITDA forecast has been adjusted to $2.097 billion, a decrease from the previous estimate of $2.138 billion. The updated price target reflects the firm's recalibrated expectations ahead of Nexstar's upcoming earnings announcement.
In other recent news, Nexstar Media Group (NASDAQ:NXST), Inc. has reported a robust financial performance, achieving record total net revenue and the highest quarterly distribution revenue for the third consecutive quarter. These results have been bolstered by strategic partnerships with major sports leagues and the successful launch of NewsNation.
The company's Board of Directors has also welcomed Ellen Johnson, reinforcing their commitment to robust corporate governance. Furthermore, a substantial $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization has been approved, reflecting confidence in Nexstar's financial health and commitment to shareholder value.
Recent developments indicate Nexstar is bullish on political advertising revenue, which saw a significant increase in Q2, more than double that of 2020. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $398 million with a margin of 31.4%, up from the previous year. However, certain advertising categories such as furniture, automotive, and entertainment have been impacted by a slowdown in the economy, although Q3 projections show improvement.
Nexstar's CEO has emphasized the company's strategy to be a broadcaster-centric network and discussed programming plans for the CW network. The company expects to break even with its CW network by the first quarter of 2026.
InvestingPro Insights
To complement Guggenheim's analysis of Nexstar Broadcasting Group (NASDAQ:NXST), InvestingPro data provides additional context for investors. Despite the lowered price target, NXST's current P/E ratio of 12.7 suggests the stock may still be undervalued relative to its earnings. This is further supported by an InvestingPro Tip indicating that the company has been profitable over the last twelve months.
In line with Guggenheim's focus on EBITDA, InvestingPro data shows that NXST's EBITDA for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 was $1,408 million. While this represents a 17.95% decline, it's important to note that the company maintains a strong dividend profile. An InvestingPro Tip highlights that Nexstar has raised its dividend for 11 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 4.16%.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 5 additional tips on Nexstar Broadcasting Group, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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