Piper Sandler initiates Couchbase stock at Overweight, sees upside after 44% pullback

Published 16/08/2024, 08:16
Piper Sandler initiates Couchbase stock at Overweight, sees upside after 44% pullback

On Friday, Piper Sandler, a financial services firm, began its coverage of Couchbase Inc (NASDAQ: BASE) stock, a small-cap database company, with an Overweight rating and a price target of $22.00.

The firm believes the recent 44% decline in Couchbase's stock from the year-to-date highs in March is excessive. The new price target reflects confidence in the company's growth prospects and valuation.

Piper Sandler's assessment is based on several factors that could drive Couchbase's stock upward. These include the potential for accelerated annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth in the coming year due to a shift towards Couchbase's Capella database-as-a-service offering, improved operating efficiency that may lead to positive free cash flow (FCF) next year, and the opportunity for market share gains in the expansive $100+ billion market.

The firm's valuation of Couchbase at 3.7 times the calendar year 2025 estimated enterprise value to sales (EV/S) ratio stands below the 5.3 times median for small-cap software companies. This discrepancy is seen as an attractive entry point for small-cap growth investors, especially considering the recent pullback in the company's shares.

Piper Sandler also highlighted Couchbase's potential for revenue, margin, and multiple expansions over the next 12 to 24 months. The transition to the Capella model is cited as a key catalyst that could reinvigorate investor interest in the stock.

The firm's recommendation comes as Couchbase is positioned to capitalize on its untapped potential within a large market. Piper Sandler's price target suggests a favorable risk-reward scenario for Couchbase, with the stock trading at 3.5 times the calendar year 2026 estimated EV/S and 27 times EV/FCF.

In other recent news, Couchbase, Inc. reported robust financial performance in the first quarter of 2025. The company saw a 21% year-over-year increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR), reaching $207.7 million.

Additionally, the quarterly revenue rose to $51.3 million, marking a 25% increase compared to the previous year. Couchbase also secured a new corporate headquarters in San Jose, California, according to a recent lease agreement with SR Winchester, LLC.

Oppenheimer adjusted its price target on shares of Couchbase, reducing it to $25.00 from the previous $30.00, maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm projects Couchbase's second-quarter fiscal year 2025 revenue to slightly surpass the company's guidance range of $50.6-51.4 million.

Meanwhile, Needham maintained its Buy rating and a $22.00 price target on shares of Couchbase, focusing on the company's potential for growth and product innovation.

These are the recent developments for Couchbase, which continues to focus on operational efficiency and growth through its go-to-market motion, while also driving increased adoption of its Capella service.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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