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On Wednesday, BMO Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on shares of Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR), lowering the insurance company's price target slightly from $239.00 to $237.00, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. The revision follows a re-evaluation of the company's growth estimates based on new insights into Progressive's Direct to Consumer channel acquisition strategy.
The firm has revised its expectations for Progressive's organic policy count growth in the second half of 2024, increasing the near-term estimates. However, for the years 2025 and 2026, the growth estimates have been modestly reduced. Despite this adjustment, BMO Capital's projections for policy-in-force (PIF) growth remain 4% and 7% above the consensus at the end of 2025 and 2026, respectively.
BMO Capital notes that while their earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Progressive have increased slightly due to a lower expense ratio, the price target has been decreased to $237. This change reflects the slightly lower growth projections for the upcoming years.
The valuation methodology employed by BMO Capital involves applying an approximate 19x multiple on the estimated "normalized" EPS for 2025, which assumes a combined ratio of 92.5%.
The combined ratio is a key performance indicator in the insurance industry, representing the percentage of premiums an insurer spends on claims and expenses. A ratio below 100% indicates profitability, and Progressive's expected combined ratio suggests a solid financial footing according to the firm's analysis.
Progressive Corp., based in Mayfield Village, Ohio, is one of the major insurance providers in the United States, offering a range of insurance products including auto, property, commercial auto, and other specialty insurance. The company's stock performance and financial health are closely watched by investors and analysts in the insurance sector.
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