On Monday, Citi analyst Martin Wilkie adjusted the price target for Rexel SA (RXL:FP) (OTC: RXLSF), reducing it to €31.00 from the previous €33.00, while still affirming a Buy rating on the stock. The revision reflects a continuous positive outlook on the company, despite a slight moderation in expectations.
Wilkie's stance on Rexel is based on what he views as a low valuation for a company that is on a path of structural improvement. This improvement is expected to come from organic productivity measures and from Rexel's potential role as a consolidator in the highly fragmented U.S. market. A recent takeover bid that was turned down is seen as further evidence of the company's underlying value.
The analyst anticipates that categories currently experiencing deflation, such as piping and automation, will start to stabilize, with some normalizing already and others expected to do so in early 2025.
Additionally, the negative impact on gross margins from solar deflation is predicted to lessen as solar becomes a smaller part of Rexel's business. Wilkie forecasts an improvement in EBITA margins, from 5.9% in 2024 to 6.1% in 2025.
Wilkie also noted that an acceleration in the implementation of Rexel's strategy, hinted at during the earnings call, could result in productivity benefits arriving sooner than anticipated.
This could also expedite the execution of a U.S. roll-up strategy that is accretive to the company's value. Although the 2025 EBITA forecast has been lowered by 8%, the analyst reiterates a strong upside potential for Rexel's shares.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.