Gold prices steady as traders assess Fed rate outlook after soft US data
On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley updated its financial model for SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ:SEDG), resulting in a reduced price target for the solar technology company's shares. The new target is set at $23.00, down from the previous $28.00, while the firm maintains an Equalweight rating on the stock.
The adjustment reflects expectations for a slower revenue growth through the first quarter of 2025 and narrower margins as SolarEdge focuses on channel destocking. Morgan Stanley's revised estimates are consistent with the company's recent statements regarding its inventory strategy. The firm anticipates that revenue and gross margins will remain stable from the third quarter of 2024 through the first quarter of 2025.
Looking further ahead, Morgan Stanley has decreased its revenue forecasts for SolarEdge by 12% for 2025 and 11% for 2026, citing uncertainties over demand recovery and the company's ability to hold its market share amid stiff competition in Europe. Based on these projections, the analyst expects SolarEdge to experience a free cash flow (FCF) burn of $150 million in the second half of 2024, $50 million in 2025, and then to generate $100 million of FCF in 2026.
Considering the company's cash position, which included around $690 million in cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, and the anticipated cash burn, Morgan Stanley's model assumes that SolarEdge will need to raise $150 million in equity in the third quarter of 2025. This would help the company fund its debt maturity and maintain adequate liquidity levels.
The new discounted cash flow (DCF)-derived price target of $23 implies a multiple of 28.5 times the firm's 2026 EBITDA estimate. This is a significant increase from the earlier multiple of 18 times. Despite the lowered EBITDA estimate, which is about 50% lower for 2026, the analyst expects SolarEdge to eventually return to its historical margin structure beyond 2027, albeit at a more gradual pace than previously modeled.
In other recent news, SolarEdge Technologies is expected to announce third-quarter earnings for 2024, as forecasted by Deutsche Bank. The firm has maintained a Hold rating on the company, slightly lowering its earnings estimate by 3% due to ongoing difficulties in Europe. Despite these challenges, Deutsche Bank suggests investor sentiment towards SolarEdge could turn more positive within the next six to nine months.
Mizuho Securities has lowered their price target for SolarEdge from $40 to $35 due to concerns over margin recovery and inventory levels, while maintaining an Outperform rating. Jefferies has downgraded the stock from Hold to Underperform, citing a subdued outlook in Europe and strong competition.
SolarEdge reported second-quarter revenues of approximately $265 million and has set a revenue target of $550 million for the second quarter of 2025. The company also expects to become cash flow positive in the same year.
Truist Securities maintained a Hold rating on SolarEdge, adjusting their 2024 and 2025 revenue estimates to $1.02 billion and $1.67 billion respectively.
There have been significant changes in the company's management structure, with former CEO Zvi Lando stepping down and ex-CFO Ronen Faier stepping in as interim CEO. Ariel Porat, previously Senior VP of Finance, has assumed the CFO role.
InvestingPro Insights
Recent data from InvestingPro sheds additional light on SolarEdge's financial situation, aligning with Morgan Stanley's cautious outlook. The company's market capitalization stands at $1.16 billion, reflecting the significant challenges it faces. InvestingPro Tips highlight that SolarEdge is "quickly burning through cash" and "not profitable over the last twelve months," which corroborates Morgan Stanley's projections of continued cash burn through 2025.
The company's Price to Book ratio of 0.55 suggests that the stock is trading below its book value, potentially indicating undervaluation or reflecting investor concerns about future performance. This metric aligns with the InvestingPro Tip noting that SolarEdge is "trading at a low Price / Book multiple."
Additionally, SolarEdge's revenue growth has been severely impacted, with a striking -73.23% quarterly decline as of Q2 2024. This dramatic decrease in revenue supports Morgan Stanley's decision to lower their revenue forecasts and price target.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 13 additional tips that could provide valuable insights into SolarEdge's financial health and market position.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.