Starbucks stock target cut on cyclical headwinds, still Outperform

Published 22/07/2024, 15:34
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On Monday, BMO Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX), reducing the coffee giant's price target from the previous $120.00 to $100.00. Despite this change, the firm maintained its Outperform rating on the company's shares.

The revision follows observations that Starbucks' comparable store sales in the United States continued to face challenges in the third fiscal quarter of 2024. The company's recent initiatives to rejuvenate its platform did not yield the expected results, which has led to a downward revision of estimates for the fiscal years 2024 and 2025.

The analyst from BMO Capital Markets noted that Starbucks might need to exercise patience before witnessing a turnaround in momentum. This is particularly true given the ongoing cyclical economic challenges in its key markets, including the United States and China. Despite these challenges, the firm's stance remains optimistic, attributing the difficulties to cyclical factors rather than structural issues within the company.

The report suggests that the current valuation of Starbucks shares presents an attractive risk/reward scenario for investors. BMO Capital Markets believes that the company's fundamentals are strong and that the current pressure on comparable store sales is not indicative of long-term problems.

Additionally, the report mentions that recent developments involving Elliott Management's reported investment in Starbucks could lead to a situation where the company's share price movement becomes disconnected from its fundamental performance. This could introduce an additional variable for investors to consider when evaluating the company's stock.

In other recent news, Starbucks Corporation has seen several significant developments. Reports suggest the activist investor, Elliott Investment Management, has taken a considerable stake in Starbucks. The exact size and implications of this stake remain undisclosed.

Analysts from TD Cowen and BTIG have maintained their respective Hold and Buy ratings on Starbucks, with price targets of $81 and $100. They anticipate potential strategic changes that could improve the company's performance, especially in light of Elliott's involvement.

In addition, Starbucks has initiated procedures to protect its trademarks in Russia, despite suspending operations there. Morgan Stanley has adjusted its outlook on Starbucks, reducing the price target to $98 due to a lower-than-expected operating margin forecast and modest foreign exchange headwind.

Meanwhile, Evercore ISI has downgraded Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) stock from "Outperform" to "In Line" due to weak sales performance, particularly at Taco Bell.

InvestingPro Insights

Starbucks Corporation's financial position and market performance reveal a mix of strengths and challenges. Notably, the company has a robust market capitalization of $89.79 billion, underscoring its significant presence in the industry. Its P/E ratio stands at 21.54, which, while indicating a premium valuation, reflects investor confidence in the brand's earnings potential. On the earnings front, Starbucks has maintained its dividend payments for 15 consecutive years, a testament to its commitment to shareholder returns.

InvestingPro Tips highlight a few critical points for investors considering Starbucks stock. Analysts have revised their earnings expectations downwards for the upcoming period, suggesting that near-term projections may need to be tempered. However, the company has experienced a significant return over the last week, with a price total return of 8.96%, possibly indicating investor optimism or a favorable market reaction to recent events. It's also worth noting that Starbucks operates with a moderate level of debt, which can be a stabilizing factor in uncertain economic times.

For those seeking a deeper analysis, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available, providing a comprehensive look at Starbucks' financial health and market position. To explore these insights and make informed investment decisions, use coupon code PRONEWS24 to get up to 10% off a yearly Pro and a yearly or biyearly Pro+ subscription. This is an opportunity to gain access to valuable information that could shape your investment strategy.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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