Bank of America just raised its EUR/USD forecast
On Friday, UBS adjusted its outlook on Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) shares, raising the price target to $40 from $39 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The revision reflects anticipated benefits from the company's recent initiatives, including share repurchases and production shifts to Thailand, aimed at enhancing supply chain efficiency.
The firm noted the adjustment comes after evaluating Harley-Davidson's second-quarter earnings and considering the softer retail environment and demand. The company's plan to relocate the production of certain motorcycle models, such as the Pan America, Sportster S, and Nightster, to Thailand for the 2025 model year is part of a strategy to improve supply chain operations.
Despite the price target increase, UBS pointed out potential downside risks to Harley-Davidson's shipment guidance. The company's share repurchase program and its efforts to streamline production are factors in the updated price target. However, there are concerns about the motorcycle manufacturer's ability to meet its shipment targets.
Harley-Davidson's stock valuation has seen a shift over the past decade. The average forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has decreased from 12-13 times to an average of 9 times in the last three years.
This change suggests that the market is now accounting for a longer-term decline in the company's retail performance, which has been falling at an average annual rate of 4-5% over the last 18 years.
A brief increase in retail sales occurred during the comparison period with the pandemic shutdown, but global retail numbers have resumed their decline in 2023 and into 2024.
The firm's analysis uses a blended P/E multiple based on approximately 12 times the estimated 2025 earnings per share (EPS) for Harley-Davidson's Motor Company (MotorCo) segment and about 6 times the estimated 2025 EPS for Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). This approach reflects a consistent valuation methodology in line with the company's performance expectations.
In other recent news, Harley-Davidson has been the subject of notable developments. The motorcycle manufacturer reported a second-quarter profit that exceeded Wall Street expectations, largely driven by strong demand for its high-end Touring motorcycles. However, the company adjusted its revenue forecast for 2024, suggesting a potential decrease in demand and plans for more significant production cuts later this year.
Both Baird and Citi have adjusted their price targets for Harley-Davidson, with Baird raising it to $44.00 and Citi to $37.00, respectively. These adjustments followed Harley-Davidson's announcement of a $1 billion share repurchase authorization, a strategic financial decision expected to yield an 11% return to shareholders.
In another significant move, Harley-Davidson is set to receive an $89 million grant from the Biden administration to expand its Pennsylvania plant for manufacturing electric motorcycles. This is part of the government's $1.1 billion grants for electric vehicle production.
Furthermore, Harley-Davidson reported a 12% increase in consolidated revenue for the second quarter of 2024, with growth in both its motorcycle and financial services segments.
InvestingPro Insights
Recent data from InvestingPro underscores the strategic maneuvers by Harley-Davidson, aligning with UBS's updated outlook. A key highlight is the company's aggressive share buyback strategy, a move that often signals management's confidence in the business's future prospects. This is complemented by the fact that Harley-Davidson has successfully raised its dividend for three consecutive years, showcasing a commitment to returning value to shareholders. Additionally, the company's liquid assets surpassing short-term obligations suggests a robust balance sheet capable of weathering potential market headwinds.
InvestingPro Data reveals a market capitalization of $4.77 billion and an attractive price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.39, which further adjusts to 7.04 over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024. The company's dividend yield stands at 1.9%, with a recent ex-date of June 5, 2024, for the last dividend payment. These financial metrics, particularly the low earnings multiple, may entice value-focused investors considering the historical P/E trends mentioned in the article.
For readers interested in a deeper analysis, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available that provide further insights into Harley-Davidson's financial health and market outlook. These tips can be accessed through the dedicated InvestingPro platform.
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