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On Thursday, RBC Capital adjusted its outlook on shares of Valvoline Inc . (NYSE:VVV), reducing the price target to $48.00 from the previous $54.00, while keeping a Sector Perform rating on the stock. The adjustment follows the firm's expectation that fiscal year 2024 numbers will likely be lower than previously anticipated, and the guidance for fiscal year 2025 seems less certain.
The firm's analyst noted that the reduction in the price target is a response to challenging macroeconomic conditions, rather than a significant shift in the company's business outlook. Despite the downward revision, the analyst suggests that the recent sell-off in Valvoline shares could be a buying opportunity for investors looking for a defensive stock that is still expected to grow its EBITDA at a mid-teens rate, even against a deteriorating consumer backdrop.
For fiscal years 2024 and 2025, RBC Capital has updated its estimates for Valvoline's system-wide same-store sales (SSS) to an increase of 6.8% for both years, down from the prior estimates of 7.3%. Revenue growth projections have also been adjusted to 12.5% for fiscal year 2024 and 14% for fiscal year 2025, a decrease from the previous forecasts of 13% and 15%, respectively.
Furthermore, the analyst has revised the adjusted EBITDA growth estimates for Valvoline to 16% for fiscal year 2024 and 13% for fiscal year 2025, which represents a decrease from the earlier projections of 17% and 16%. The new price target of $48 is based on approximately 14 times the revised calendar year 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $513 million.
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