Coin Edition -
- Arthur Hayes criticizes Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell’s oscillating decisions that negatively impact the crypto space.
- Hayes describes the prevailing bearish trend in Bitcoin as a TradFi mini-financial crisis.
- Predicting Bitcoin’s further dip below $35K, Hayes spots BTC’s support between $30K and $35K.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently shared insights on the potential impacts of the oscillating decisions of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the crypto space. In the essay entitled “Yellen or Talkin’?” Hayes also pointed out that the recent dip in Bitcoin highlights a “TradFi mini-financial crisis.”
"Yellen or Talkin'?" is an essay on why I think the $BTC slump is pointing to a TradFi mini-financial crisis, and it will bottom in the $30k to $35k range.https://t.co/uwiLscKwzW pic.twitter.com/zRpUcE6TIz— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 23, 2024
Initially, Hayes’ essay reflected on the discrepancy between Yellen and Powell’s words and actions. He asserted that though Yellen proclaimed a shift of the majority of borrowing to Treasury bills (T-bills), she shifted just her department’s borrowing to T-bills. The move resulted in hundreds of billions of dollars pumped into the global financial markets.
Similarly, Powell hinted at a potential interest rate cut in 2024 during the FOMC ( Federal Open Market Committee) press conference in December 2023. Despite the market’s anticipation of the cut, there has been no confirmation of the same.
One of the other key topics of concern in Hayes’ essay was the prevailing bear market in Bitcoin. The BitMEX founder asserted that he highly believes in the role of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) in the recent Bitcoin slump. According to him, in anticipation of the lesser chance for the renewal of BTFP, Bitcoin is less likely to ascend to a bull market.
In addition, highlighting the 30% correction from the ETF approval high of $48,000 to $33,600, Hayes spotted Bitcoin’s support level between $30,0000 and $35,000. On January 22, he shared an X post, reflecting on Bitcoin’s current descending track.
$BTC looks mad heavy. I think we break $40k. I went long some 29Mar $35k strike puts. I think we dump into the 31Jan US Treasury qtly refunding annc. Is Janet Yellen or Talkin'? pic.twitter.com/lyjqNmldzh— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 22, 2024
Colin Wu, a Chinese reporter, shared insights on Hayes’ trading strategies, reiterating the latter’s words from the essay. As per Hayes’ assertions, Yellen and Powell are less likely to pass BTFP renewal, leading to a further drop of Bitcoin below $35,000.
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