Polymarket casts doubt on Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plans

Per a CoinDesk report, Wednsday’s trading session may reflect investor sentiment on the latest developments concerning the potential establishment of a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve by the Trump administration. Polymarket, a predictive market platform, currently indicates only a 16% likelihood that former President Donald Trump will order the creation of such a reserve within the first 100 days of a potential future administration.

Crypto czar David Sacks, during a recent appearance on Fox, mentioned that President Trump has requested a study on the matter. "President Trump has asked us to study that issue, so we are not ready to comment on it yet. But it’s one of the things our working groups are going to look at," Sacks said. Despite this, the low probability assigned by Polymarket suggests skepticism about the initiative’s fruition.

In a separate but related legislative move, Senator Cynthia Lummis, a Wyoming Republican recognized for her support of Bitcoin, has introduced a bill to create a Bitcoin reserve. The proposed legislation outlines a "Bitcoin Purchase Program" that would acquire up to 200,000 BTC annually over five years. Funding for the program would come in part from revaluing the Federal Reserve’s gold reserves. This bill is currently under review by the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

Support for the concept of a strategic Bitcoin reserve also comes from Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR). Saylor believes that investing in Bitcoin could serve as a means to protect the U.S. dollar. At a November conference, he stated, “The best way to protect the dollar is make sure you retire the debt and become rich. The next best way to protect the dollar is to make sure that if anybody ever considers a different capital asset other than the treasury bill, you own it."

In addition to these developments at the federal level, the State of Texas has announced its own plans to establish a strategic BTC reserve. Polymarket participants are more optimistic about Texas’ initiative, assigning a 53% chance to the passage of a bill in 2025 that would authorize the creation of the state’s BTC reserve.

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