Tesla revenue dented by softer demand as Musk warns of "rough quarters" ahead
Investing.com -- Standard Chartered (LON:STAN) expects Bitcoin to continue its upward trajectory in the second half of 2025, forecasting the cryptocurrency will hit $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and reach $200,000 by year-end.
The global bank attributes the bullish outlook to robust inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries, as well as supportive U.S. policy and regulatory developments.
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $112,000 in Q2, below the bank’s earlier forecast of $120,000 but still well above the $85,000 level seen at the start of Q1.
“Strong inflows drove Q2 price gains – U.S. spot ETFs saw inflows of $12.4bn (120,000 BTC) during the quarter, and Bitcoin treasury companies added 125,000 BTC,” Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick said, marking the second-strongest quarter ever for both categories.
Kendrick expects that ETF and corporate treasury purchases, which totaled 245,000 BTC in Q2, will be exceeded in Q3. Inflows into spot ETFs have been particularly strong, with $48.7 billion in total net buying since their January 2024 inception.
The report noted that Bitcoin ETF inflows in Q2 “far surpassed $6.9bn of inflows into gold ETFs,” a signal of investor rotation even amid geopolitical tensions.
“We do not view Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge, so the fact BTC ETF inflows outpaced gold ETF inflows is encouraging. We expect more net ETF buying in Q3 than we saw in Q2,” Kendrick wrote.
On the regulatory front, potential catalysts include the likely passage of the U.S. stablecoin bill and expectations that President Trump will announce a replacement for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the end of October.
Kendrick sees both events as supportive for Bitcoin. “We think these drivers, along with the increased flows outlined above, should be enough to push Bitcoin to a new all-time high in Q3. We target a move to around USD 135,000,” he continued.
Heading into Q4, market attention may turn to the Bitcoin halving cycle and whether the historical pattern of post-halving price declines repeats.
However, Standard Chartered thinks that strong ETF and treasury flows—largely absent in previous cycles—will be sufficient to offset any selling pressure.
The bank maintains its year-end price target of $200,000.