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Investing.com -- Improving U.S.–China relations and a changing macro backdrop could mark a turning point for Bitcoin, analysts say, suggesting the world’s biggest cryptocurrency “may NEVER go below 100k again” if current momentum holds.
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick said fears from last week have flipped to hope following reports that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent implied China will suspend rare earth export controls for a year and buy significant volumes of U.S. soybeans, in return for Washington dropping its 100% tariff threat.
The deal’s details are expected after the Trump–Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea. The news pushed USD/CNH toward year-to-date lows.
As sentiment improved, the Bitcoin–gold ratio continued to climb and now sits just above levels seen before the 10 October tariff shock.
Kendrick said a break above 30 would signal an end to fear in the market. He added that ETF flows will be key to confirming the rebound, noting more than $2 billion exited U.S. gold ETFs late last week.
“It would be confirmation of a more positive Bitcoin backdrop if we had half of that re-enter Bitcoin ETFs Mon–Wed this week,” he said, adding that Bitcoin ETF inflows have lagged gold and “some catch-up is due.”
The analyst argued that a new all-time high in Bitcoin would serve as “absolute positive confirmation,” signaling the end of the halving cycle theory and establishing ETF flows as the dominant driver of prices.
He also pointed to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is expected despite the central bank “flying blind” on data.
Focus will soon shift to the next Fed Chair, which he believes could be supportive for Bitcoin “due to implied Fed independence risks.”
Kendrick concluded that if this week unfolds positively—including major earnings from mega-cap companies—Bitcoin could solidify its breakout and “may NEVER go below 100k again.”