Antofagasta beats forecasts but flags output hit from maintenance

Published 14/08/2025, 10:20

Investing.com -- Antofagasta Plc on Thursday reported a stronger-than-expected first-half 2025 performance, but fresh maintenance at its Los Pelambres mine means copper output is likely to come in at the lower end of its full-year guidance.

The London-listed miner posted group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of $2.2 billion in the six months to June 30, about 2% above both company-compiled consensus and analyst estimates. Earnings per share also exceeded forecasts, running 8% above consensus, with RBC calculating a 24% beat versus its own projection.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets, Barclays and Morgan Stanley described the results as a “clean beat,” “decent” and a “mixed bag,” respectively.

The company declared an interim dividend of 16.6 cents per share, in line with its 35% payout policy. 

The distribution was 5% ahead of consensus estimates and 24% higher than RBC’s forecast. Barclays and Morgan Stanley said the dividend was 3% to 5% above their own projections.

Guidance for 2025 production and costs was left unchanged. However, the company said additional maintenance on the Los Pelambres tailings pipeline in July and August would reduce copper production by 5,000 to 10,000 metric tons. 

The reduction means total annual output is expected toward the lower end of the 660,000 to 700,000 metric ton range.

Barclays and Morgan Stanley noted the maintenance could weigh on the market reaction, even after a solid first half. 

Morgan Stanley also flagged that Antofagasta had used only 41% of its $3.9 billion capital expenditure budget in the first six months, suggesting a substantial increase in spending is required in the second half to meet its full-year target.

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