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Investing.com -- Carlsberg A/S (CSE:CARLb) on Thursday reported third-quarter 2025 results that matched market expectations and maintained its full-year guidance for 3% to 5% organic operating profit growth.
The brewer said organic volumes fell 3% and organic sales declined 1.4%, compared with consensus estimates of a 3% and 1.6% decline, respectively.
The Copenhagen-based brewer, which owns brands including Carlsberg, Tuborg and 1664, reported that performance varied across markets.
Western Europe posted a 2.6% decline in organic volumes and a 1.2% drop in sales, while Asia volumes fell 1.2% and sales decreased 0.6%. Central and Eastern Europe, along with India, recorded a 5.2% decline in volumes and a 2.8% fall in sales.
Jefferies said “volumes came in below in CE Europe and India, but slightly ahead on Asia and W Europe.”
The brokerage cited pressures in Ukraine, a heavy monsoon in India, and weak demand in Kazakhstan and Poland as contributing factors.
It also noted that Carlsberg out-performed “in China with vols flat vs market -2%,” and that “significant improvement in India in Sep” followed earlier disruptions.
The group reiterated additional financial targets, including an expected foreign exchange translation headwind of negative DKK 200 million, financial expenses of DKK 2.4 billion, an effective tax rate of around 23%, and capital expenditures of approximately DKK 7 billion.
Consensus for organic EBIT growth stands at 3.3%, and Jefferies said it does “not anticipate material moves here.”
The brokerage described the quarter as an “in-line print,” adding, “Delivery is in line with expectations and guidance is reiterated.”
Jefferies listed both positive and negative takeaways from the period. On the positive side, the analysts said, “Delivery in line with expectations 3Q org vols/sales -3%/-1.4% vs Street -3.0%/-1.6% (2) No change to guidance 3-5% org EBIT (cons +3.3%).”
Among the negatives, Jefferies highlighted the 3% decline in organic volume overall and noted that Central and Eastern Europe and India volumes were down 5.2%, “given pressures in Ukraine.”
It also reported that “subdued consumer sentiment persisted across regions,” and that the “Beyond Beer category saw -10% volume decline.”
Jefferies analysts Edward Mundy and Sebastian Hickman wrote that “ Carlsberg is the right stock for the times given the multi-bev model, likely topline acceleration in F26 and plenty of self-help,” and added that they “expect shares to re-rate as confidence builds around the OSG framework 4-6% with margin expansion.”