Holiday Inn owner IHG defies peers with reaffirmed outlook despite uncertainty

Published 08/05/2025, 09:30
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Investing.com -- InterContinental Hotels Group (NYSE:IHG) (LON:IHG) said Thursday it remains on course to meet full-year profit expectations, standing out from industry peers that have issued cautious outlooks amid growing economic uncertainty in the U.S.

The group’s shares rose nearly 3% in London trading. The company’s U.S.-listed shares also advanced 2.7% in premarket trading. 

Bank of America (BofA) analysts said this was "a reassuring outlook" from IHG. 

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts said they "expect our and consensus full-year forecasts to be broadly held, and for the share price to react positively."

The company’s largest market, the United States, is facing increased recession risks tied to the global trade tensions triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Travel firms have warned that demand could soften as a result.

Analysts are forecasting IHG to deliver adjusted EBITDA of $1.32 billion for fiscal 2025.

In the first quarter, IHG posted a 3.3% increase in global revenue per available room (RevPAR), ahead of the 2.4% consensus and stronger than the 2.6% growth recorded a year earlier.

Regionally, the EEMEA segment led with a 5% year-on-year rise, followed by a 3.5% gain in the Americas. RevPAR in Greater China declined by 3.5%.

IHG shares are down 8% year-to-date in U.S. dollar terms, reflecting investor concerns over U.S. demand and broader macroeconomic conditions. The stock trades at 16x expected 2025 EV/EBITDA, representing a 7% discount to its U.S. peer.

"We think this is unjustified given IHG’s high returns, earnings growth and cash return potential and we reiterate our Buy rating," BofA analysts said. 

 

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