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Investing.com -- ING Group (AS:INGA) reported a strong set of results for Q1, beating expectations across multiple lines, sendings its shares up by over 4% on Friday.
The bank posted a net profit of €1.46 billion, beating consensus estimates of €1.40 billion, with pre-tax profit also exceeding expectations by 4%, reaching €2.12 billion.
The bank also announced a €2 billion share buyback, which was in line with analyst forecasts, further boosting investor confidence.
A key highlight was the commercial net interest income (NII), which came in at €3.79 billion, 1% ahead of consensus expectations.
Although group-wide NII saw a slight decline of 2% QoQ, this was largely due to a decrease in lending margins, which fell from 128bps in Q4 2024 to 125bps in Q1.
This decline was offset by a strong performance in liability NII, benefiting from deposit growth, repricing of customer deposits, and a structural shift in wholesale banking.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) noted that this shift, along with strong deposit growth, supported ING’s NII performance, which came in above expectations.
Barclays (LON:BARC) echoed this sentiment, recognizing the positive contribution of liability margin growth.
Fee income was another bright spot, with Q1 showing a 10% YoY increase, driven by strong activity in investment income.
This was 2% ahead of consensus, as noted by Morgan Stanley, who highlighted that fee growth was a key factor in the overall outperformance.
Retail banking was particularly strong, with an 18% increase in fee income, underscoring ING’s solid position in its key markets.
In terms of loan loss provisions, ING reported €313 million (18bps), much lower than the €352 million expected by analysts.
This was largely driven by a reduction in Stage 3 provisions, which declined from €311 million in Q4 2024 to €215 million in Q1.
RBC Capital Markets praised ING’s performance on loan provisions, highlighting that the lower-than-expected provisions helped bolster the bank’s profit for the quarter.
The CET1 ratio stood at 13.6%, in line with consensus expectations. However, ING raised its CET1 target for year-end 2025 to 12.8%-13.0%, reflecting macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
While this temporary increase raised some questions about long-term guidance, RBC Capital Markets noted that the overall market sentiment remained positive, particularly with the announcement of the €2 billion buyback and a revised capital target that should leave room for further shareholder returns.
ING maintained its guidance for FY2025, expecting stable total income compared to FY2024, with a 5-10% growth in fee income.
The bank also upgraded its replicating portfolio income guidance for 2025-2027, raising expectations by €300 million for FY2025, as per RBC Capital Markets.
However, the outlook for replicating portfolio income remains sensitive to changes in interest rates, with analysts noting that the revised projections could face downside risk if rates continue to fall.