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Investing.com -- Shares of Italian tower operator Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane S.p.A. (BIT:INWT) fell more than 8% on Tuesday after the company lowered its long-term guidance, reflecting slower market growth and weaker investment activity from mobile network clients.
Jefferies in a note said Inwit “has lowered its 2026-30 guidance to the bottom of its range, reflecting challenging market conditions and slowing inflation.”
The move follows what the brokerage described as “a trend mgmt has been flagging for some time.”
The brokerage said the change would result in 2030 consensus EBITDA moving down 1.8% and free cash flow decreasing 4.5%, with leverage now projected to reach 5x by 2030 compared with 4.8x previously.
The Milan-based company, which provides infrastructure for telecommunications and broadcasting services, had expected a recovery in network investments from mobile operators after the consolidation of Vodafone and Fastweb.
Jefferies said Inwit’s adjustment is “an acknowledgement that it has yet to see any acceleration and is still operating against a low-growth, low-inflation backdrop.”
For the third quarter of 2025, Inwit reported revenue of €271.1 million, up €2.1 million from the previous quarter and broadly in line with company consensus of €271.5 million.
EBITDA came in slightly below expectations at €247.4 million versus a consensus of €248.2 million. Recurring free cash flow was €169.7 million, which Jefferies said was “a beat coming in +3.0% ahead,” helped by lower cash interest costs and a larger-than-expected working capital inflow.
Revenue rose 4.1% year over year, slowing from 4.6% growth in the second quarter. EBITDA increased 4.3% from a year earlier, while recurring free cash flow climbed 6.7%. Inwit added 180 new sites in the quarter and 670 new tenancies, bringing the tenancy ratio to 2.37x from 2.35x in the prior quarter.
The number of Small Cells and Distributed Antenna Systems grew by about 300, with 30 new DAS projects completed in the period.
Jefferies left its 2025 estimates unchanged but reduced its outer-year projections by about 0.5% to 3.5%.
The brokerage also lowered its long-term growth rate assumption by 25 basis points to 2.5% and cut its price target on Inwit shares by 10% to €10.10 from €11.20, maintaining a “hold” rating.
Inwit’s revised guidance keeps its 2026 revenue outlook between €1.135 billion and €1.165 billion, with an EBITDA margin above 91% and recurring free cash flow between €655 million and €675 million.
The company maintained its dividend forecast at €0.60 for 2026 and at least €0.72 by 2030.
Jefferies said Inwit “continues to find itself in a tough operating market,” noting that its expected revenue compound annual growth rate of about 4% from 2025 to 2030 is supported by moderate tenant additions and smart infrastructure services.