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Investing.com -- Kemira Oyj (HE:KEMIRA) shares dipped nearly 5% Thursday after the Finnish chemical industry group issued a profit warning ahead of its second-quarter results and lowered its full-year 2025 outlook, citing "continued demand softness in the packaging and pulp customer industry" and currency headwinds.
The company said the depreciation of the U.S. dollar has weighed on both revenue and profitability and expects this pressure to continue through the second half of the year.
Kemira now forecasts full-year revenue between €2.7 billion and €2.95 billion, with operational EBITDA in the range of €510 million to €580 million. This marks a downgrade from its previous guidance of €2.8 billion to €3.2 billion in revenue and €540 million to €640 million in operational EBITDA.
Jefferies analysts said the read across is most negative for global pulp producers, particularly UPM-Kymmene (HE:UPM), Stora Enso (HE:STERV), Svenska Cellulosa (ST:SCAb), ENCE (BME:ENC), and Suzano (NYSE:SUZ).
They noted that investor sentiment in the pulp sector is already weak due to high inventory levels and uncertainty over whether China pulp prices are bottoming this month.
“We are 15–20% below 2025–26 ‘stale’ cons EBIT,” the analysts said, highlighting their more cautious view compared to current consensus expectations.
"Whilst buy-side is already lower with muted expectations, pulp warning adds to negative sentiment," they added.
For the packaging sector, the analysts said the implications are more relevant to producers of consumerboard and specialty food packaging papers—such as Metsä Board, Stora Enso, Holmen, and Billerud—rather than containerboard producers like Mondi (LON:MNDI), Smurfit Westrock (NYSE:WRK), and International Paper.
They expect weaker second-quarter packaging demand, citing global trade uncertainty, and view the overall read across as negative for European packaging grades following a strong first quarter.
Based on preliminary second-quarter results, Kemira reported revenue of €693.4 million and operational EBITDA of €131.8 million. Currency translation effects, mainly tied to the weaker dollar, reduced earnings by about €20 million.
Kemira is set to release its half-year financial results on July 18.