VAT misses Q1 forecasts, warns of volatile outlook amid geopolitical strain

Published 17/04/2025, 08:08
© Reuters

Investing.com -- VAT’s first-quarter orders and revenue missed expectations, with the company citing geopolitical uncertainty and sluggish semiconductor demand, casting doubt on the strength of its full-year growth outlook.

Orders for Q1 came in at CHF 241.7 million, falling short of the consensus estimate of CHF 275 million. 

Semiconductor-related orders were weak, down 10% from the previous quarter and 16% below Jefferies’ projections. 

The company attributed the decline to increased caution among customers ahead of potential tariffs and higher-than-expected inventory levels.

Revenue for the quarter reached CHF 275.1 million, slightly below Jefferies’ estimate of CHF 285 million and consensus expectations of CHF 281 million. 

VAT’s order backlog at the end of March stood at CHF 339.1 million, down 8% quarter-on-quarter.

Guidance for the second quarter suggests further softness, with revenue expected between CHF 260 million and CHF 290 million. 

This compares with a consensus forecast of CHF 285 million and Jefferies’ estimate of CHF 283 million. 

Despite the weaker start to the year, VAT continues to project growth in 2025 across orders, revenue, EBITDA, net income, and free cash flow, while planning capital expenditures of CHF 90 to 100 million. 

However, the company did not reiterate the market’s anticipated revenue growth of 20% for the year. Jefferies’ own forecast stands at 19%.

On the impact of global trade tensions, VAT said it currently expects tariff-related effects to be non-material.

“We expect capacity investments in both DRAM and NAND flash to be more sensitive to macro-economic uncertainty than advanced logic, with the likelihood of a decline in these segments in 2026,” said analysts at Jefferies in a note.

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