(Bloomberg) -- Australia’s economy unexpectedly added jobs last month while unemployment held up, underscoring the resilience of the labor market in the face of a renewed coronavirus outbreak.
Employment increased by 12,900 roles in January from a month earlier, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Thursday. Unemployment was steady at 4.2% despite participation edging up. The impact of the omicron variant of coronavirus was seen in hours worked, which dropped by 8.8%.
Australian bonds advanced after the jobs numbers, bringing the three-year yield down two basis points to 1.63%. The Aussie dollar edged lower to 71.96 U.S. cents. Futures traders trimmed bets that the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates in May to about 60%, from 80% odds seen on Tuesday.
“Nationally, and in New South Wales and Victoria, the number of people who worked reduced hours because they were sick was around three times the pre-pandemic average for January,” said Bjorn Jarvis, head of labor statistics at the ABS. “In other states and territories, it was twice as many people.”
The survey was conducted in the first two weeks of January, at the peak of the omicron wave when Australia had about 800,000 active Covid-19 cases.
The strength of Australia’s labor market is a key reason why economists and financial markets expect the RBA will begin raising rates in coming months. Governor Philip Lowe, by contrast, reckons it will take time for low unemployment to translate into much faster wages growth, suggesting a tightening cycle remains some way off.
RBA Says Pickup in Wages Growth Likely to Be ‘Only Gradual’ (1)
Figures from the National Skills Commission this week showed the Internet Vacancy Index climbed 4.4% last month to a 13-year high. Over the year to January, recruitment activity is up nearly 41% with advertisements at all-time highs in 10 occupations.
The RBA forecasts unemployment will this year fall below 4%, a level unseen since the early 1970s, though wages growth is only seen lifting to 3% in 2023. Lowe wants faster wages growth in order to sustainably return inflation to its 2-3% target before he begins raising rates after a prolonged period of weak consumer-price growth.
Other Details:
- Full-time roles decreased by 17,000 while part-time positions rose by 30,000
- The underemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 6.7%
- Underutilization increased 0.1 percentage point to 10.9%
- The participation rate rose to 66.2% from 66.1% a month earlier
(Updates with further details from report.)
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