China Q2 GDP grows more than expected amid tariff deescalation, consumer subsidies

Published 15/07/2025, 03:20
© Reuters.

Investing.com-- China’s economy grew slightly more than expected in the second quarter, gross domestic product data showed on Tuesday, amid limited headwinds from the U.S. trade war and sustained stimulus support from Beijing. 

GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year in the three months to June 30, more than expectations of 5.1% but declining slightly from the 5.4% seen in the prior quarter. 

GDP rose 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, beating expectations of 0.9%. 

This brought China’s GDP in the first six months of 2025 to 5.3%, in line with expectations and above the government’s 5% annual target.

The strong Q2 print reflected a limited economic impact from a trade war with the U.S., given that China had to contend with only a month of steep U.S. trade tariffs before both countries agreed to deescalate in mid-May. This helped Chinese export growth remain robust in May and June, with demand from other major markets– specifically Europe and India– remaining solid. 

Washington and Beijing agreed to further deescalate their trade conflict in June. 

Chinese domestic spending was also a major contributor to GDP, as Beijing doled out several subsidies– on electronic goods and real estate– aimed at boosting spending.

But this trend was seen running out of steam in June. Separate data released on Tuesday showed China’s retail sales rose 4.8% y-o-y in June, less than expectations of 5.2% and slowing from the 6.4% rise in the prior month.

Chinese industrial production, however, ramped up in June amid improving export demand. Output grew 6.8% y-o-y, well above expectations of 5.6% and rising sharply from the 5.8% seen in May.

Chinese fixed asset investment– a gauge of capital spending by businesses– remained sluggish, rising 2.8% y-o-y in June and missing expectations of 3.6%.

China’s unemployment rate remained steady at 5% as expected. 

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