Goldman Sachs assesses the impact of LA wildfires on US GDP, payrolls

Published 14/01/2025, 05:06
© Reuters

Investing.com-- Goldman Sachs analysts said the recent spate of devastating wildfires in Los Angeles County, California, could be the most costly wildfire event in Californian history, and were likely to factor into upcoming U.S. economic data. 

GS said that comparing the wildfires to other disasters, such as hurricanes and earthquakes, the investment bank sees a roughly 0.2 percentage point drag on first-quarter gross domestic product growth, excluding any offsetting measures from rebuilding efforts. 

In the labor market, GS expects a drag of about 15,000 to 25,000 on nonfarm payrolls growth in January from the wildfires, in part because only about 0.5% of California’s population was currently under evacuation. The investment bank does not expect a pick-up in jobless claims due to the event, with initial claims data due this week likely to remain low. 

GS analysts said they did not expect insurance costs to “have much of an impact on inflation,” seeing little spillover to prices outside California, given that homeowners’ insurance makes up a negligible part of the personal consumption expenditures price index.

The LA County was battered by a swathe of devastating wildfires over the past week, with initial estimates of the damage pegged at about $30 billion. This figure could make the wildfires the most costly in U.S. history.

Authorities were seen racing to subdue the blazes before the onset of dangerously high winds this week, which are expected to further exacerbate the fires. 

 

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.