U.K. inflation unexpectedly holds steady in September; CPI at 3.8%

Published 22/10/2025, 07:20
© Reuters

Investing.com - U.K. inflation maintained its elevated level in September, but the news that it did not climb at a faster rate will offer some comfort to Bank of England policymakers ahead of next month’s meeting.

Annual consumer price inflation rose 3.8% in September, the same level seen in both August and July, but had been expected to reach 4.0%, a level not seen since January 2024.

This is still almost twice the Bank of England’s 2.0% medium-term target.

The monthly rate was flat, a drop from the 0.3% growth seen in the prior month.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, was also flat on a monthly basis, rising 3.5% annually, a drop from the 3.6% growth seen in August. 

The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4% at its September meeting, the lowest level for more than two years, with the benchmark Bank Rate having started 2025 at 4.75%. 

The Bank’s governor Andrew Bailey said at the time that the U.K. was "not out of the woods yet" when it came to inflation, so any future rate cuts would “need to be made gradually and carefully".

The next interest rate setting decision is on Nov. 6, and while a further interest rate cut had been expected at one point this may be less certain now.

Additionally, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announces her latest budget measures on Nov. 26, and these could also influence the Bank’s future decisions.

Reeves is widely expected to announce a package of tax increases and cuts to spending next month in response to a shortfall in the government finances that could reach up to £40 billion.

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday showed government borrowing over the first six months of this financial year was £99.8 billion, £7.2 billion more than forecast by the watchdog in March.

Additionally, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury’s independent watchdog, is widely expected to announce a sharp downgrade in growth forecasts.

 

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