UPDATE 1-Africa to rebound from pandemic slump in 2021 but damage done - AfDB

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JOHANNESBURG, July 7 (Reuters) - Africa is expected to
partially rebound next year from a pandemic-induced economic
slump, but it could still lose nearly a quarter of a trillion
dollars in economic output in 2020 and 2021, the African
Development Bank (AfDB) said on Tuesday.
Africa has so far largely been spared the rampant infections
and heavy death tolls seen in Europe and the United States. Its
hardest-hit nation, South Africa, has recorded around 200,000
cases of COVID-19 and just over 3,100 deaths.
African economies, however, have not been immune to the
pandemic's global shockwaves, with oil exporters such as
Algeria, Angola, Libya and Nigeria on track to witness the
continent's sharpest declines in economic output.
Under a scenario in which the pandemic continues into the
second half of this year, the AfDB forecasts a 3.4% contraction
in gross domestic product in 2020 - compared with a pre-pandemic
projection by the Abidjan-based bank of growth of 3.9%.
The figures were included in a revision of the AfDB's
African Economic Outlook, which was originally published before
the pandemic.
A partial V-shaped recovery should see growth rebound to
between 2.4 and 3% next year, the bank said.
"But the projected recovery in 2021 would not make up for an
estimated cumulative loss to Africa's GDP of $173.1–$236.7
billion for 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic," the report said.
A rebound is threatened by risks including a potentially
worsening pandemic, subdued commodity prices, volatile global
financial conditions and even natural disasters such as the
locust infestations that have ravaged East Africa this year.
International Monetary Fund slashed its 2020 global output
forecast last month, projecting the world's economies will
shrink 4.9%, compared to a 3.0% contraction predicted in April.
The European Commission forecast on Tuesday that the euro
zone economy will drop deeper into recession this year and
rebound less steeply in 2021 than previously thought.