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Investing.com -- Leading financial institutions have provided their analyses of the U.K.’s August inflation data, which remained steady at 3.8%, leaving the Bank of England’s next rate cut decision in question.
ING leads the pack with its comprehensive assessment that while U.K. inflation remains stubbornly high, it doesn’t necessarily rule out further rate cuts this year. According to ING, inflation is likely to hover in the 3.5-4% range for the remainder of 2023, with food inflation being a particular concern for the Bank of England.
The Dutch bank notes that while the 3.8% inflation figure isn’t welcome news for the BoE ahead of its Thursday decision, it "doesn’t dramatically move the needle" on prospects for a rate cut later this year.
ING highlights that food inflation nudged above 5% as anticipated, which is concerning given its role in inflation expectations and correlation with restaurant prices. They calculate that "core services" inflation remained unchanged at 4.2%.
Nomura, the Japanese financial services group emphasizes that while headline and service price inflation remain too high, there is evidence that underlying service price momentum is moving in the right direction.
Nomura points out that airfares rose less than normal in August, while accommodation prices fell more sharply than usual. Their analysis suggests that underlying service price momentum is reverting to pre-pandemic rates, but cautions that "one swallow does not a summer make."
American investment bank JP Morgan expects inflation to peak at around 4% in September, with slowing wage growth eventually exerting downward pressure.
JP Morgan notes that their estimated "supercore" inflation rose 0.3% seasonally adjusted in August - not as strong as previous months but still running at 4.6% on a three-month annualized basis. They highlight that household inflation expectations have shifted higher, complicating the BoE’s decision-making.
Meanwhile, UBS, the Swiss bank forecasts headline inflation to rise to 4.0% in September before moderating to 3.4% by December 2025 and 2.1% by December 2026.
UBS attributes August’s stable print to rising energy and food inflation being offset by lower core inflation. They expect the BoE to keep rates unchanged with a strong 7-2 majority vote, maintaining its "gradual and careful" approach to easing.
Deutsche Bank’s chief U.K. economist Sanjay Raja expects inflation to push higher to near 4% in September before gradually declining.
The bank projects inflation will sustainably return to the 2% target around 2027, noting that labor market developments point to wage disinflation and weaker price pass-through over the next year, though these effects will take time to materialize in price data.