U.S. stocks rise on Fed cut bets; earnings continue to flow
Investing.com - Bank of America expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a total reduction of 75 basis points anticipated by the end of 2026, according to a new research report released Monday.
The financial institution suggests all three projected rate cuts could potentially occur before the end of 2025, with additional 25 basis point reductions forecasted for October and December, which would bring the policy rate down to 2.00% by year-end.
Bank of America’s analysis indicates Canada currently faces a negative output gap, with unemployment exceeding the country’s natural rate and inflation running below the central bank’s target. The report notes inflation expectations remain anchored at 2.0%.
These economic conditions are driving Bank of America’s projection that the Bank of Canada will rapidly move its policy rate into "expansionary territory" to stimulate growth.
The research report acknowledges one significant risk to its forecast: the possibility that the Bank of Canada might take longer than anticipated to reduce rates below the neutral level.
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