EUR/USD likely to find a peak near 1.25: UBS
Bank of America (BofA) economists revised their outlook on Poland’s interest rates, signaling a significant shift in expectations following comments from the head of the country’s central bank.
After maintaining the policy rate at 5.75%, National Bank of Poland (NBP) Governor Adam Glapinski indicated a change in the Monetary Policy Council’s (MPC) approach, suggesting that rate cuts are on the horizon.
BofA now anticipates the NBP to reduce its year-end 2025 rate to 4.50%, a notable adjustment from the previously forecasted 5.25%. Similarly, the year-end 2026 rate projection has been lowered to 4.0% from 4.75%.
This adjustment comes after Glapinski’s dovish turn at the post-decision press conference, where he hinted at 50 basis point reductions in steps this year, with the potential for additional cuts in 2026, aiming for policy rates around 3.50%.
The analysts have adapted their predictions for the current year, considering the next 50 basis point cut to be a tight decision between May and June. For 2026, BofA has set a slightly higher rate path than the Governor’s guidance, taking into account the possibility of further economic recovery and a consequently tighter labor market.
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