BofA sees scope for South Africa rate cuts if 3% inflation target achieved

Published 26/08/2025, 16:02
BofA sees scope for South Africa rate cuts if 3% inflation target achieved

Investing.com - The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7% on July 31, a decision that was unanimously approved by its monetary policy committee.

The central bank simultaneously announced its preference to target 3% inflation—the lower bound of its official 3-6% target range—though this decision has not yet received formal approval from the National Treasury. Technical teams from both institutions are currently analyzing the implications of this potential policy shift.

SARB’s quarterly projection model now forecasts the repo rate at 6.69% by the end of 2025, suggesting at least one more rate cut is anticipated. The central bank is expected to pause rate cuts for the remainder of 2024 while engaging with stakeholders about the new inflation target.

South Africa’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached its lowest point at 2.8% in May before rising to 3% in June. Analysts project further increases to 3.5% in July and 4.4% in October as year-on-year fuel deflation ends.

Bank of America analysts suggest South Africa could achieve the 3% inflation target by the end of 2027 through credible communication, advantageous supply-side factors including low oil and food prices, and reforms to administrative prices for utilities. If successful, the policy rate could potentially decrease to 5.75% by 2027, with two cuts expected in 2026 and three in 2027.

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