Hedge funds cut NFLX, keep big bets on MSFT, AMZN, add NVDA
Bank of America (BofA) analysts reported a slightly more optimistic view on Peru’s economic prospects following a recent visit to Lima. The trip involved meetings with local policymakers, politicians, independent experts, and investors, leading to a positive shift in expectations for the country’s macroeconomic performance in 2025.
The analysts highlighted that Peru’s GDP growth is outpacing expectations, and the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) has effectively managed inflation. Monetary policy is approaching a neutral stance, and the balance of payments remains strong. Despite challenges such as unstable politics, rising crime rates, and issues with the Fiscal Rule, the low public debt contributes to a constructive outlook.
Economic forecasts from various sources indicate growth above 3% for 2025. The Ministry of Finance predicts a 4% increase, independent experts suggest a figure close to 3%, and the BCRP’s forecast lies between these estimates. Recent data revealed robust economic momentum, with January’s monthly GDP growth at 3.9% year-on-year.
BofA analysts identified both external and domestic factors driving this growth. High metal prices have improved the terms of trade significantly, enhancing disposable income for consumption and investment. This has also encouraged mining firms to increase their investments. Infrastructure developments, such as the new Chancay port and the Lima airport expansion, are expected to boost trade and tourism. Additionally, declining inflation and growing labor demand are leading to rising real wages.
However, the recent shutdown of fifteen shopping malls due to a tragic accident in Trujillo has had an impact on consumption. With estimated daily sales losses of PEN 100 billion, policymakers recognize this as a noticeable shock but anticipate that consumption will shift to other areas, mitigating the overall effect. The malls are expected to reopen following the completion of security checks, with the actual impact on GDP considered to be less significant than initially estimated.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.