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Citi analysts forecasted that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will likely implement a 50 basis point (bp) rate cut in its upcoming monetary policy decision. This aligns with the results of the Citi Mexico Expectations Survey and the firm’s own predictions.
The decision, expected to be influenced by controlled inflation and a widening output gap, could lead to eased services inflation and reflects Banxico’s current restrictive monetary stance. Additionally, a favorable Banxico-Federal Reserve rate differential is anticipated to play a role.
Citi’s outlook suggests that the monetary forward guidance will stay flexible, potentially accommodating a similar rate cut in May, as well as two subsequent 25 bp reductions later in the year, aiming for a year-end rate of 8.00%. This would imply a pause in rate adjustments after August.
February’s inflation data indicated that both headline and core inflation rates were within the central bank’s target range, with headline inflation at 3.77% and core inflation at 3.65%. The normalization of core goods towards historical levels has been offset by a decline in core services inflation, which is tied to the current economic slowdown.
For the first half of March, Citi expects the inflation dynamics to remain consistent, with headline biweekly inflation projected at 0.17% (3.71% year-over-year) and core inflation at 0.26% (3.59% year-over-year).
Observations from Citi’s regular gasoline price trackers point to a decrease towards 24 Mexican pesos per liter, which could indicate that the initiative to maintain gasoline prices at this level for the next six months is taking effect. However, Citi analysts caution that it is premature to declare the strategy a success.
Looking ahead, Citi’s inflation forecasts for the end of 2025 are set at 3.9% for headline inflation and 3.7% for core inflation, suggesting a modest uptick from current levels. The detailed inflation forecast and price trackers are outlined in Citi’s week ahead section for further analysis.
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