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Investing.com -- Citi has cautioned that Turkey’s planned reactivation of its Credit Guarantee Fund scheme might risk deteriorating the country’s external economic performance. The Turkish authorities announced plans to revive the scheme to boost growth, according to Bloomberg on May 22, 2025.
The bank’s analysis examined whether Turkey’s recent ability to maintain narrow current account deficits alongside high economic growth represents a structural economic change or merely temporary factors. This distinction carries significant policy implications as Turkey considers growth-stimulating measures.
Citi’s research found "insufficient evidence to conclude that the change in the external performance-growth link is a permanent shift." This finding suggests the current economic balance might be fragile rather than representing a fundamental improvement in Turkey’s economic structure.
The bank warned that concerns about subdued growth might trigger additional expansionary measures beyond the Credit Guarantee Fund scheme. Such measures could potentially worsen Turkey’s economic position if the current favorable conditions are indeed temporary.
Citi concluded that policy measures aimed at stimulating economic activity "should be employed judiciously, as they have the potential to exacerbate both external and internal imbalances" in the Turkish economy.
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