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FOREX-Euro hits four-month low on weak German data and dollar gains

Published 07/02/2020, 12:54
Updated 07/02/2020, 13:01
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro hits four-month low on weak German data and dollar gains
DXY
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* Euro hurt by poor German data, worst week since November

* Coronavirus fears keep sentiment fragile, yen gains

* Market attention turns to U.S. non-farm payrolls

* GRAPHIC-World FX rates in 2019: http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Adds new analyst quotes, latest prices, chart)

By Tommy Wilkes

LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The euro fell to its lowest since

October on Friday after German industrial output recorded its

biggest decline in a decade in December and a recent batch of

strong employment data in the United States encouraged investors

to buy the dollar.

The dollar has gained in recent sessions thanks to solid

data. It has also benefited as investors shied away from riskier

currencies while assessing the fallout from the coronavirus

outbreak in China, where the death toll continues to climb.

The focus for Friday is U.S. non-farm payrolls data due at

1330 GMT which is expected to confirm that the labour market in

the world's biggest economy is in robust health.

MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny said the Germany data undermined

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's comments on

Thursday that the euro zone economy was stabilising. The euro fell as low as $1.0948 EUR=EBS , down 0.3% on the

day, and has now lost 1.2% since Monday, putting it on track for

its worst week since November.

"The hard data sits inconsistently with most sentiment data

pointing to some improvement. But the political line that

'recovery is coming' is losing credibility fast," Halpenny said.

"The October 2019 low of $1.0879 is now a credible near-term

target given the scale of weakness in the German data,

especially if the much-anticipated improvement in the

coronavirus outlook fails to materialise."

Falls in the offshore Chinese yuan and gains for the

Japanese yen underlined the more cautious mood setting on Friday

after a week in which stock markets and other riskier assets

rebounded sharply despite concerns about the virus and growth.

The offshore yuan slipped 0.3% to 6.997 yuan per dollar

CNH=EBS , though it was still set for a small gain this week

thanks to stimulus from China's central bank and Beijing's

announcement of tariff cuts on U.S. imports.

The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for China,

weakened 0.7% to $0.6672 AUD=D3 , its lowest since October,

after the Reserve Bank of Australia slashed growth forecasts in

its quarterly economic outlook. The U.S. dollar, which is on course for its biggest weekly

gain against the yen since July 2018, dropped against the

Japanese currency on Friday, trading 0.2% lower at 109.81 yen

JPY=EBS .

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a

basket of rivals, edged 0.1% higher .DXY to 98.597, its

strongest since mid-October.

Analysts said the U.S. non-farm payroll data had the

potential to boost the greenback further.

"Assuming the figures hit the forecasts, the data are likely

to be modestly bullish U.S. dollar, in my view," said Marshall

Gittler, an analyst at BDSwiss Group.

Sterling was headed for its worst week since the aftermath

of December's general election, dogged by persistent worries

about negotiations between Britain and the European Union for a

post-Brexit trade deal. The pound was last at $1.2932 GBP=D3 . It staged a small

recovery against the euro, rising 0.3% to 84.70 pence

EURGBP=D3 .

Euro vs U.S. dollar https://tmsnrt.rs/37aqSnn

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