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FOREX-Euro bears lurk as worries about economic outlook grow

Published 18/02/2020, 01:45
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro bears lurk as worries about economic outlook grow

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

* Tracking the coronavirus https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7

* Euro draws fire as focus shifts to economic outlook

* Pound slips on worries about relations with EU

* Virus still a worry as traders try to measure impact

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Feb 18 (Reuters) - The euro traded near a three-year

low versus the dollar ahead of a highly watched German survey on

Tuesday, which is expected to show a sharp slump in investor

confidence and fuel growing pessimism about the outlook for

Europe's largest economy.

Financial markets clung to tight ranges following a U.S.

public holiday on Monday, shifting the investor focus to

European news and developments in the coronavirus crisis.

Sterling nursed losses against the dollar and the euro due

to lingering worries about economic ties between Britain and the

European Union as both sides laid out conflicting views on how

to proceed with trade negotiations.

In Asia, the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen held steady

as traders assessed the spread of an outbreak of a new

coronavirus both inside and outside China.

Sentiment for the euro has worsened dramatically this month

after weak manufacturing and gross domestic product data from

Germany, Europe's largest economy, suggests that the euro zone

is more vulnerable to external shocks that previously thought.

"The euro is close to testing an important support level at

$1.08 due to the diverging economic outlook between the euro

zone and the United States," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior

foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

"It looks a little oversold, so in the very short term there

could be a bounce, but the euro's fundamentals still point more

to the downside."

The euro EUR=EBS was quoted at $1.0836 in Asia, close to

its lowest since April 2017.

Since the start of February, the single currency has lost

2.3% versus the greenback as disappointing economic data raised

concerns that euro zone monetary policy will have to remain

accommodative for much longer.

The euro's next hurdle is the release of Germany's ZEW

survey later on Tuesday, which is forecast to show economic

sentiment slipped from the highest since July 2015.

The pound GBP=D3 held steady at $1.3003 in Asia on Tuesday

following a 0.3% decline in the previous session. Sterling

EURGBP=D3 was quoted at 83.30 pence per euro, nursing a 0.4%

decline on Monday.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Europe adviser David Frost

said on Monday Britain will not be threatened into following EU

rules to win a free trade agreement with the bloc. Frost's comments are in contrast with those of European

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has called on

Britain to guarantee fair competition based on ambitious

environmental and labour standards. Britain left the EU last month and the two sides will now

start negotiating a new relationship from trade to security.

Elsewhere in the currency market, the offshore yuan CNH=D3

held steady at 6.9882 per dollar after China's Hubei province,

considered the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, said new

cases of the illness fell slightly to 1,807 on Monday from 1,933

the previous day. However, currency markets are increasingly likely to react

to new data on the virus cautiously given uncertainty about the

actual number of cases and difficulties in estimating when the

epidemic will peak.

The yen JPY=EBS , which initially gained on safe-haven

flows as the outbreak unfolded last month, held steady in a

narrow range at 109.82 per dollar.

The Australian dollar AUD=D3 fell 0.22% to $0.6702 after

minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's first meeting of

the year showed policymakers discussed easing policy.

The RBA kept rates unchanged at an all-time low of 0.75% at

that meeting, but the minutes showed central bankers are

prepared to ease policy further if needed.

The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 was little changed at

$0.6436.

The antipodean currencies have been buffeted by the virus

due to Australia's and New Zealand's extensive trade ties with

China, with commodities, tourism and education especially

vulnerable.

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