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Investing.com -- President Donald Trump has said U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs will be set at a “very, very high rate, like 200%.”
Strategists at Barclays (LON:BARC) estimate that a rate as high as 200% could significantly disrupt Asian supply chains, with Singapore likely to face the sharpest impact due to its central role in global pharmaceutical production and trade.
Barclays estimates that 2.3% of Singapore’s value-added (VA) is exposed to such a tariff—by far the highest in Emerging Asia.
“A 200% pharmaceutical tariff could potentially result in Singapore experiencing one of the largest VA-weighted U.S. tariff increases globally,” the strategists led by Brian Tan wrote.
That would lift Singapore’s VA-weighted U.S. tariff rate by 4.5 percentage points, from a current level of just 0.4%. Singapore is already in talks with the U.S. to secure tariff concessions for pharmaceutical and semiconductor exports.
India, Korea, and Malaysia would also be affected, though to a lesser degree, with estimated VA-weighted increases of 0.7pp, 0.4pp, and 0.3pp, respectively. Barclays notes these figures capture both direct and indirect exposure through complex global supply chains.
Trump has indicated a grace period of at least a year before pharmaceutical tariffs are enforced.
“We’ll give them a certain period of time to get their act together,” he said.
By contrast, a separate 50% copper tariff—also outlined by the Trump administration—would have limited consequences for Emerging Asia. The biggest impact would fall on top copper exporters like Chile and Peru, strategists said.
The bank’s analysis uses OECD trade in value-added data to capture both direct and indirect exposure to U.S. tariffs through global supply chains.