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Investing.com - The U.S. tariff rate on all imports is tipped to climb from its 2024 level of 2.5% due to President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
In a note to clients, the analysts predicted the so-called effective tariff rate would rise by roughly 16 percentage points should the tariffs already implemented by Trump be sustained and separate sectoral levies be introduced.
A separate projection has estimated the effective tariff rate could climb by as much as 25 percentage points to 27.5%, although the Goldman analysts said this forecast "overstates the increase because it fails to account for larger declines in imports of goods facing higher tariffs and for substitution and rerouting of U.S. imports away from China toward other countries facing lower tariffs."
Earlier this month, Trump moved to slap steep reciprocal tariffs on a host of countries, arguing that it was necessary to correct longstanding trade imbalances and increase federal revenues. However, he later announced a partial 90-day pause to the elevated levies on most of these nations, in an apparent response to deep ructions in both stock and bond markets.
Late on Friday, the White House temporarily halted duties on a range of tech-related products, such as smartphones and computers, largely coming from China. Trump has also floated potentially granting exemptions to car-related imports.
Still, universal 10% tariffs on many countries remain in place, as well as trade taxes on items like steel, aluminum, autos and auto parts.
China, in particular, was also left out of Trump’s reciprocal tariff delay, ratcheting up a trade spat between the world’s two largest economies. The president has placed a 145% tariff on imports from China, sparking a retaliatory 125% levy from Beijing.
Media reports, meanwhile, have suggested that sector-specific duties on electronic products, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals could soon be implemented. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said an investigation into these industries that may be a precursor to the tariffs could wrap up "in the next month or two."
The Goldman analysts estimated the sectoral levies would take effect in the third quarter of this year, although they flagged that "the risks lean toward faster implementation."