HSBC forecasts three Fed rate cuts through March 2025, sees more USD selling

Published 19/06/2025, 11:26
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Investing.com -- HSBC expects the Federal Reserve to implement three 25-basis-point interest rate cuts through March 2025, according to a recent bank forecast. The global bank anticipates cuts in September and December this year, followed by another reduction in March 2025.

The forecast reflects HSBC’s view that inflation will remain above the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2% target through the forecast period. The bank projects a federal funds target range of 3.50-3.75% by the end of next year, representing a cumulative 75 basis points in reductions.

HSBC acknowledges potential risks to both timing and scale of the projected rate cuts. The bank notes that weak labor market data could trigger larger cuts, while persistent elevated inflation might result in fewer reductions.

The latest FOMC meeting matched consensus expectations with unchanged policy and minimal statement adjustments. During his press conference, Fed Chair Powell emphasized a patient policy stance while awaiting clearer economic data in coming months.

With the Fed currently on pause, HSBC observes that foreign exchange markets are more focused on U.S. trade policy, fiscal debates, and geopolitical factors than on Fed outlook. These factors currently suggest further U.S. dollar weakness ahead, according to the bank.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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