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Investing.com -- Worries over valuations and swelling pockets of credit risk following fresh strains among U.S. regional banks have rattled markets, but Macquarie says the underlying fundamentals still offer reasons for optimism. The real question, it argues, is not whether the U.S. economy is strong or weak? Both,” Macquarie says, reflecting a world where risks and opportunities coexist in what it calls a “twilight zone."
Macquarie likens current market conditions to Schrödinger’s cat, "both dead and alive at the same time."
Conventional metrics offer little clarity: Volatility has flared, with the S&P 500 VIX Futures breaching 23, yet credit stress remains muted. Spreads on lower-rated high-yield bonds have risen only marginally to 8.5%, far below historical danger zones, while average high-yield spreads “remain at barely 3%, hugging the lowest levels ever.” Defaults and bankruptcies, too, remain subdued.
Macquarie warns, however, that narrow growth and concentrated returns make the current cycle particularly fragile. “Growth is exceptionally narrow and highly bifurcated," it added, with AI investment rising, non-AI falling, while consumption is being driven by the top 1% even as much of the country "tread the water." That uneven strength, paired with policy unpredictability, leaves markets vulnerable to sudden shocks akin to the SVB panic.
Against this dual sided backdrop, investors should stop expecting clear signals.
“Neither yield curves, spreads, nor mean reversion are likely to be useful,” Macquarie warned.
The challenge now is to balance caution with conviction, either by diversifying widely or backing long-term secular themes, it added.