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Investing.com - The Federal Reserve is tipped to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming two-day meeting, with officials highlighting slowing job growth, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.
A hint of a bias toward further easing in the months ahead could also appear in the policy statement released by the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee following its September 16-17 gathering, the bank predicted.
They projected that FOMC’s statement will refer to additional "reductions" to the funds rate, a more explicit change from language in its July meeting statement noting possible future "adjustments."
Meanwhile, the Fed’s assessment of the labor market is expected to soften after previously characterizing the jobs picture as "solid."
"[W]e expect they instead write that ’job growth has slowed’ while still acknowledging low unemployment," the analysts led by Michael Gapen said.
The Fed is also seen flagging that sweeping U.S. tariff have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods, while broader inflation has stayed "somewhat elevated."
This would imply that the central bank will acknowledge an emerging worry that it faces challenges to both sides of its mandate: encouraging maximum employment and ensuring price stability. Still, policymakers are anticipated to underline that "downside risks to employment have risen," justifying a rate reduction.
In the wake of a weak August jobs report last week, expectations for a drawdown by the Fed of at least 25 basis points have been all but cemented. There is also a roughly 10% chance of a deeper, half-point cut from the current level of 4.25% to 4.5%, CME’s FedWatch Tool has shown. Theoretically, rate reductions can help spur on investment and hiring, albeit at the risk of driving up inflationary pressures.
Policy projections -- as laid out in the Fed’s all-important dot plot -- are estimated to foresee two quarter-point cuts this year. But, for 2026, the Morgan Stanley analysts expect the dots to show 50 basis points in reductions instead of the current outlook for only a quarter-point drawdown.