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Investing.com -- The Norges Bank held its policy rate steady at today’s interim meeting, maintaining the rate at its cyclical peak of 4.50%. The bank’s guidance remained consistent, indicating a potential rate reduction likely to occur in 2025.
Today’s statement from the bank maintained a balanced stance, highlighting that trade disputes could influence the direction of the interest rate outlook. Lower global growth and reduced oil prices could widen the output gap, while recent depreciation of the Norwegian krone (NOK) following tariff announcements could have the opposite effect.
Despite the krone’s stability within its current trading range over the past two years, it continues to be a significant factor against policy easing.
The Norges Bank has stated that the level of uncertainty is currently too high to make any definitive policy decisions. As a result, any decisions have been postponed until June when new Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecasts will be available. This cautious approach, while more hawkish than anticipated, has led to some uncertainty about the likelihood of a rate cut at the meeting scheduled for June 19.
The decision in June will be influenced by several key factors. These include upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, set to be released tomorrow for April and on June 10 for May, the Regional Network Report (RNR) survey on June 12, and developments in the NOK and the market until then.
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