Japan PPI inflation slips to 11-mth low in July
Capital Economics released a report predicting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be less aggressive in cutting interest rates compared to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
The firm’s economists said that the RBA will cut rates to a peak of 3.60%, with weak productivity growth acting as a constraint on the economy’s potential speed limit. The RBNZ, while still expected to implement a looser policy stance, faces a choppier path to disinflation, leading to the revised expectations for its policy rate trajectory.
The Australian economy displayed signs of recovery last quarter, with expectations for continued growth, bolstered by a tight labor market and strong public demand. This outlook suggests that the RBA will only slightly reduce monetary restraint.
In contrast, the New Zealand economy has emerged from a potential deep recession, experiencing growth in the fourth quarter. The RBNZ, having already reduced rates significantly since August, is expected to cut rates below the neutral level.
However, Capital Economics now forecasts a more extended easing cycle than previously anticipated, with the terminal rate projection raised from 2.25% to 2.50% and the anticipated low point delayed from the end of 2025 to mid-2026.
The Australian economy’s recent positive turn is supported by data from Westpac’s Leading Index, which indicates that growth will accelerate over the next six months. Despite lackluster private consumption growth, robust public demand and forthcoming government spending ahead of the May general election are anticipated to support overall activity.
Both countries are expected to see a peak in unemployment rates soon, with Australia’s unemployment currently at 4.1%, only marginally higher than its recent 50-year low.
Wage pressures in Australia are anticipated to persist due to a tight labor market and widespread enterprise bargaining agreements, with annual wage growth projected to decrease slightly from 3.2% in Q4 to 3.0% by the end of the year. New Zealand, on the other hand, is likely to experience a more significant drop in wage growth.
Inflation trends also differ between the two economies. Australia’s trimmed mean inflation edged up from 2.7% in December to 2.8% in January, with services inflation posing a potential risk to disinflation forecasts. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s inflation remains within the RBNZ’s target band, although business surveys may be exaggerating inflationary pressures.
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