Sellers outnumber buyers by 34% in US housing market, highest since 2013

Investing.com -- Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN), the technology-powered real estate brokerage, has reported a significant shift in the U.S. housing market. For the first time since records began in 2013, there are 34% more sellers than buyers. The data shows an estimated 1.9 million home sellers compared to 1.5 million homebuyers, which equates to an excess of 490,041 sellers.

This imbalance has not been witnessed since March 2020, when the number of home sellers was similarly high. The low number of buyers, however, has not been seen since April 2020, during the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the housing market.

Redfin’s data extends up to April 2025 and is based on active listings in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) to estimate the number of sellers. To estimate the number of buyers, Redfin used a model that considers data on pending sales and the typical time from a buyer’s first tour to their purchase.

According to Redfin, the growing imbalance between buyers and sellers is expected to result in a 1% drop in home prices by the end of 2025. This prediction is based on the principle that when sellers compete for a smaller pool of buyers, it creates a buyer’s market, which can lead to falling home prices due to increased negotiating power for buyers.

Several factors contribute to the current imbalance. High home prices and mortgage rates are discouraging potential buyers. The median home sale price rose 1.6% year over year to $431,931 in April, a slow growth rate, but monthly housing payments reached a record high due to elevated mortgage rates and prices. The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate was 6.73% in April, significantly higher than the record low during the pandemic.

Economic uncertainty, including tariff talks, layoffs, and federal policy changes, is also affecting homebuyer demand. A recent Redfin survey found that nearly one in four Americans is scrapping plans to make a major purchase due to tariffs.

Additionally, homeowners who secured ultra-low mortgage rates during the pandemic are now selling their homes, giving up those low rates. This trend is driven by the fact that many people cannot stay put indefinitely due to job changes, return to office mandates, and personal life changes.

Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan commented on the shift in the market, stating that many sellers have yet to accept the market change. As homes stay on the market longer and fewer buyers show interest, more sellers will realize that the market has adjusted and will need to reset their expectations.

The current market conditions suggest that sellers should act quickly, as home prices in their area may fall. If their home has been on the market for over a month without selling, they may need to consider property improvements or a price reduction.

For buyers, while many Americans may remain priced out of the housing market even if prices decline, those who can still afford to buy should not be discouraged. If home prices fall, wages rise, and mortgage rates remain steady, purchasing power will increase. Homes that were out of reach six months ago may become affordable as sellers accept lower offers and concessions.

The last significant imbalance in favor of sellers occurred around the time mortgage rates jumped in 2018. In November 2018, sellers outnumbered buyers by 9.4%, and three months later, home-price growth shrunk to the lowest level in at least six years.

Currently, the imbalance is even greater, putting more pressure on prices. Annual price growth has already slowed to 1.6% from 6.2% last spring, and Redfin expects this trend to continue, leading to a fall in prices. The last time home prices posted a year-over-year decline was in 2023.

In the current market, Miami has the largest imbalance among the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas, with 197.7% more sellers than buyers. It is followed by West Palm Beach, FL (182% more sellers than buyers), Fort Lauderdale, FL (179.3%), Austin, TX (124.1%), and Jacksonville, FL (119.5%).

On the other hand, St. Louis has the most balanced housing market among the 50 most populous metros, with 1.3% fewer sellers than buyers. Newark, NJ is the strongest seller’s market, with 47.1% fewer sellers than buyers.

The condo market is strongly in favor of buyers, with 83.5% more condo sellers than buyers. This is due to rising HOA fees and insurance costs, leading many condo owners to try and sell their properties. As a result, condo prices have been underperforming single-family home prices, and in some markets, prices are falling. The median U.S. condo sale price rose 0.4% year over year in April, compared with a 1.5% gain in single-family-home prices.

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