Trump tariffs raise recession risks for U.S., global economy, analysts say

Published 03/04/2025, 10:46
Updated 03/04/2025, 11:36
© Reuters

Investing.com - President Donald Trump’s latest batch of tariffs could plunge both the U.S. and worldwide economies into a recession, analysts have warned.

Trump announced his broadest slate of tariffs to date on Wednesday, saying he would slap a baseline 10% duty on all foreign imports into the U.S. and impose greater levies on several longstanding trading partners in a bid to respond to perceived unfair trade practices.

China, the European Union, India, and Japan are among a number of countries set to face elevated so-called "discounted reciprocal" tariffs that aim to address foreign charges and other non-trade barriers. The White House considers these nations to be "bad actors" on trade.

The tariffs will take effect over the next week.

Strategists at UBS flagged in a note to clients that the U.S. imported $3.3 trillion of goods last year, adding that a 20% tax on that amount would be $660 billion -- or a weight of 2.2 percentage points on gross domestic product.

"[T]he magnitudes of the tariffs being considered is clearly material, and sufficient to put the economic expansion at risk should they be put in place for a prolonged period of time," the brokerage wrote. "The simple math is pretty daunting."

Trump and White House officials have argued that these moves are necessary to address trade imbalances, bolster government revenue, and reshore lost manufacturing jobs.

"[W]e’re going to start being very wealthy again," Trump said.

However, many economists have warned that the actions will drive up prices and dent growth, while businesses have complained that uncertainty around the tariffs has made planning out their operations difficult.

The full implementation of Trump’s trade policies represented a “substantial macro economic shock not currently incorporated in our forecasts,” analysts at J.P. Morgan said in a note.

“This shock will likely be magnified by its impact on sentiment and through the retaliation of countries facing significant increases in their tariff rates,” the analysts said.

"We thus emphasize that these policies, if sustained, would likely push the U.S. and global economy into recession this year."

China vowed to unveil its own response, saying there were no winners in a global trade war. The country’s commerce ministry called the tariffs "unilateral bullying."

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, meanwhile, pledged that a united bloc would respond to the levies, warning "if you take on one of us, you take on all of us."

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.