UBS examines how Trump’s sweeping fiscal bill could impact U.S. growth

Published 07/07/2025, 11:10
© Reuters

Investing.com - President Donald Trump’s signature fiscal policy bill will likely boost U.S. growth in the near term, according to analysts at UBS.

In a note, the brokerage estimated that the package will add to real gross domestic product expansion this year and in 2026.

However, over a longer period of time and compared to policies enacted during the previous administration of former President Joe Biden, the effect is "more questionable," the analysts argued.

"We expect the bill to boost growth, but considering the size and prolonged duration of fiscal support during the Biden administration, this is substantially more limited," they wrote.

The bill is predicted to create an additional 45 basis points of real GDP over the coming six quarters, before weighing on growth in 2027, the analysts said.

On Friday, Trump signed his landmark collection of tax-cuts and spending into law, following a narrow vote in Congress. The legislation extends tax breaks introduced by Trump during his first term in office and introduced new tax reductions, while increasing spending on defense and border security.

Trump has argued that the measures will fuel economic growth. But the bill’s detractors, including a handful of Republicans, have voiced concerns around its impact on the nation’s finances. Key food-assistance and health care programs would also be cut, and tax breaks for clean energy projects rolled back, to help offset the costs of the bill.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated that it will add more than $3 trillion to the already sky-high U.S. debt pile and remove health coverage for millions of Americans. The White House has disputed the forecasts.

Republicans in Congress spent weeks haggling over the bill, with GOP leaders able to persuade enough intraparty defectors to overcome united Democratic opposition in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

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