UBS outlines rate cut expectations for major European banks

Published 07/07/2025, 09:12
Updated 07/07/2025, 12:38
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- UBS on Monday shared its forecasts for upcoming central bank decisions across Europe, highlighting potential rate cuts amid global economic uncertainties.

The bank maintains its out-of-consensus prediction that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates by 25 basis points to 1.75% on July 24, though this forecast hinges on US-EU trade talks.

UBS notes it will abandon this prediction if trade negotiations produce a positive outcome or extend beyond the current July 9-14 deadline.

For the Bank of England (BoE), UBS expects two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 - one on August 7 reducing rates to 4.0%, and another on November 6 bringing rates to 3.75%.

The bank forecasts three additional cuts in 2026 (February, May, and July), ultimately reaching a terminal rate of 3.0%.

Regarding the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which cut its policy rate to 0% in June, UBS does not anticipate further reductions.

The bank cites the SNB’s less dovish messaging, higher hurdles for implementing negative rates, and upward-sloping inflation forecasts as reasons for this stance.

UBS projects two rate hikes in late 2026, bringing rates to 0.5%.

For Sweden’s Riksbank, UBS has added one more cut to its forecast, predicting a 25-basis-point reduction to 2.0% in August.

The bank also expects another cut to 1.75% in September, followed by rate hikes back to 2.25% in the third or fourth quarter of 2026.

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