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Investing.com - U.S. importers have largely borne the burden of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda, according to analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC).
Writing in a note to clients, the brokerage said that its research suggests that, since the introduction of Trump’s increased -- and now partiallly delayed -- levies earlier this year, there has particularly been a "full pass-through" of an initial 20% levy on Chinese goods.
U.S. import prices for Japan, the United Kingdom (TADAWUL:4280), and the European Union have also risen, the Barclays strategists flagged.
However, the analysts noted that, because import prices do not directly measure the total costs incurred by an importer, they are presenting rough estimates of the effect of the tariffs.
Much of the uptick may also be linked to a recent depreciation in the value of the U.S. dollar, which could lead exporters to increase prices, the analysts noted. They estimated that about a 5% depreciation in the broad trade-weighted U.S. dollar so far in 2025 implies a boost to non-petroleum imported inflation of around 1.8 percentage points over the next year and a 0.2 percentage point increase in underlying consumer prices year-on-year.
The comments come after Trump unveiled punishing levies on dozens of U.S. trading partners in early April, saying the moves were necessary to reshore lost manufacturing jobs and bolster government revenues.
However, he later instituted a 90-day pause to the duties on most of these countries, claiming it would give officials more time to negotiate a slew of individual trade agreements.
China, crucially, was omitted from the delay, and now faces tariffs of at least 145%. Beijing has responded with its own duties of 125% on U.S. imports, exacerbating concerns over an intensifying trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
On Thursday, Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a trade deal between the U.S. and Britain, bolstering hopes that the White House could secure aggrements with other nations. Talks are due to take place in Switzerland this weekend between U.S. and Chinese officials, with Trump suggesting that the heightened levies on Beijing will eventually be lowered.
Many economists have warned that the levies could push up prices, weigh on the labor market, and dent growth, while several businesses have said murkiness around the White House’s trade plans has made it difficult to plan out future investment decisions.
Recent spending activity and labor market indicators have remained resilient. But, in the first quarter, U.S. gross domestic product contracted due largely to a spike in imports, while monthly readings of consumer sentiment have deteriorated as households worry that the tariffs could drive up prices.
The Barclays analysts said that the amount of the tariff costs passed onto consumer retail prices will depend on margins, among other factors.
"In the current environment, where U.S. consumer sentiment has taken a beating, some anecdotes indicate that firms are reticent to increase prices in order to support demand," the analysts wrote.
Industries that rely heavily on imports, meanwhile, are tipped to have reasonably wide trade margins that would allow these companies to absorb some additional tariff expenses, they said.
"This is not to say that prices do not increase, but is an argument in favor of a partial pass-through to retail prices, which is what we assume in our baseline inflation outlook," the analysts said.
"However, to the extent that demand shifts away from imports toward certain domestically produced goods, businesses with material market power may also choose to raise their margins."