U.S.-EU trade deal, U.S.-China talks kick off pivotal week - what’s moving markets

Published 28/07/2025, 08:40
© Reuters

Investing.com - U.S. stock futures tick up after the U.S. and European Union agree to a crucial deal that averts a potentially damaging trade war. Attention now turns to talks between the U.S. and China in Sweden, where media reports have suggested that the world’s two largest economies may decide to extend a trade truce. Along with an August 1 deadline for elevated "reciprocal" U.S. tariffs to kick in on a slate of countries, this pivotal week for markets will also feature a string of big-name corporate earnings, crucial economic data, and a much-anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

1. Futures rise

U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Monday, as investors digested key trade developments and looked ahead to a wave of major earnings, economic data and central bank decisions this week.

By 03:25 ET (07:25 GMT), the Dow futures contract had risen by 146 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had climbed by 25 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had increased by 127 points, or 0.5%.

The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq both logged record closing highs at the end of the previous session on Friday, extending a strong run for Wall Street. Upbeat quarterly results, as well as the prospect of more certainty around often erratic U.S. tariff plans, have helped to support equities in recent weeks.

U.S. stock markets looked to be receiving a strong handover from Europe, where their counterparts rose to a four-month high. 

2. U.S.-EU trade deal

The United States and European Union have reached a landmark trade agreement that includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S., President Donald Trump announced Sunday while in Scotland.

The broad-strokes deal encompasses significant EU purchases of U.S. energy and military gear, along with substantial investments in the American economy.

According to Trump, the European Union has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of energy from the United States. He also stated that the EU has agreed to make $600 billion in investments in the U.S.

"They are agreeing to open up their countries to trade at zero tariff," Trump told reporters. He added that the EU would "purchase a vast amount of military equipment" from the U.S.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed the agreement would include 15% tariffs across the board, noting that this measure would help "rebalance" trade between the two major trading partners. Of the $3.3 trillion in goods imported by the U.S. last year, more than $600 billion came from the 27-member EU.

The pact could help bring some calm to investors, who had been wary that both sides could fail to reach a deal before August 1, when Trump’s sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs are due to come into effect. The EU had been facing heightened levies of 30%, and had reportedly been pushing for a zero-for-zero agreement with the White House. 

3. U.S. and China to extend trade truce - reports

The U.S. and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by an additional 90 days during trade talks starting Monday in Stockholm, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on Sunday, citing sources close to the discussions.

The temporary suspension of most tariffs, agreed in May, is set to expire on August 12.

According to the SCMP report, both sides will use the third round of negotiations to outline their positions on unresolved issues, including U.S. concerns over China’s industrial overcapacity, rather than pursue immediate breakthroughs.

Sources told SCMP that during the extension, neither side plans to impose new tariffs or escalate the trade conflict. Beijing is also expected to seek clarity from Washington over the 20% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods in March related to fentanyl concerns, the report said.

Trump said Sunday the U.S. is “very close” to a deal with China, but did not elaborate. In an editorial on Sunday, China’s People’s Daily said Beijing remains committed to resolving disputes through equal dialogue and mutual respect.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported that the U.S. has paused curbs on tech exports to China to avoid disrupting these talks.

4. Jam-packed week ahead for markets

Markets are now gearing up for a week that analysts at ING have described as a "massive" week for the U.S. economy.

Along with a possible string of trade deals before August 1, the coming days will see a raft of corporate earnings, including returns from mega-cap tech titans like Facebook-owner Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

July’s nonfarm payrolls report and a reading of inflation closely monitored by the Federal Reserve are also scheduled to be released, while the Fed itself will unveil its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Fed officials are widely anticipated to leave borrowing costs unchanged, even as Trump has placed intensifying pressure on the central bank -- and Chair Jerome Powell in particular -- to quickly lower rates. Policymakers have recently signaled a "wait-and-see" approach to further rate decisions, partly citing uncertainty around the trajectory of Trump’s levies and their impact on the wider economy.

5. Gold holds firm

Gold prices held firm on Monday, as a weaker dollar helped to counterbalance bolstered risk appetite following the trade deal between the U.S. and EU.

Traders also exercised caution ahead of the Fed interest rate decision due this week, with traders curious what officials may have to say about the path ahead for the U.S. economy in the second half of 2025.

Spot Gold edged up 0.1% to $3,340.02 an ounce, while Gold futures also gained 0.1% to $3,396.67/oz by 03:29 ET.

Elsewhere, optimism that the U.S.-EU pact will avert a damaging trade war gave lift to oil prices, while the improved risk sentiment boosted Bitcoin.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.