TSX down after index extends retreat from all-time high
Investing.com - Expenditures by wealthy American households and a surge in tech sector spending on artificial intelligence may not be enough to prevent the U.S. economy from sliding into recession, according to analysts at BCA Research.
In a note, the strategists led by Doug Peta said that although they upgraded the outlook for stocks earlier this month due to the potential of an AI-fueled rally, they maintain a "jaundiced view" of the economy’s near-term prospects.
"Equity investors don’t see anywhere near the recession risk that we do," they wrote, predicting that the economy could slip into a downturn "before the year is out."
They flagged that this estimate an "outlier," with the consensus probability of a recession "nowhere near as high" as their odds of "just slightly above 50/50." Investors have also raised concerns that their expectations do not take into account strong spending by rich households and the AI boom.
However, the BCA analysts backed their estimate, saying expansions are "strongest" when a broad sweep of consumers take part in it -- and warning of the impact of recent signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market.
"Investors have too much faith in wealthy households’ ability to spend enough to stave off the effects of a broad hiring freeze. It will be hard to escape a recession if employment growth doesn’t pick up soon," the analysts said.
Companies participating in the AI arms race may also be "spending like drunken sailors" on the nascent technology, but their expenditures alone "cannot counter recessionary winds," they said.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is tipped by BCA to "ultimately cut" interest rates more than what markets are currently expecting in 2026, although they noted that "long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored."
"The bond market doesn’t think the Fed has relaxed its inflation vigilance," they wrote.
Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and laid out fresh projections which showed that many officials are anticipating another half percentage point in reductions to help stem a downturn in the labor market.
However, seven of the 19 estimates provided by policymakers in their closely-watched "dot plot" of forecasts saw fewer cuts this year, with one even calling for rates to have stayed at their prior band of 4.25% to 4.5% for the remainder of 2025.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell described this month’s rate drawdown as a form of "risk management," with the central bank having to balance the twin risks of a cooling employment picture and sticky inflation. Powell is expected to offer more commentary about the trajectory for rates during a speech on Tuesday.